Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a Tokyo minimum temperature of 27–29°C on July 31 because ensemble forecasts and climatological normals place the daily low in that narrow range during peak summer. Persistent high pressure and warm, humid air masses advected from the Pacific maintain overnight temperatures near or slightly above seasonal averages of 24–26°C, while urban heat retention limits radiative cooling. Short-range model runs show limited day-to-day variability, keeping probabilities for outcomes below 25°C or above 30°C well under 30%. New Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and updated numerical weather prediction output expected within 48 hours will determine whether any coastal breeze or increased cloud cover shifts the minimum by 1–2°C.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Tokyo on July 31?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on July 31?
27°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$11,220 ปริมาณ
$11,220 ปริมาณ
Jul 31, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$11,220 ปริมาณ
$11,220 ปริมาณ
Jul 31, 2026
22°C or below
$300 ปริมาณ
No
23°C
$396 ปริมาณ
No
24°C
$342 ปริมาณ
No
25°C
$1,028 ปริมาณ
No
26°C
$1,906 ปริมาณ
No
27°C
$1,354 ปริมาณ
Yes
28°C
$2,972 ปริมาณ
No
29°C
$1,997 ปริมาณ
No
30°C
$362 ปริมาณ
No
31°C
$300 ปริมาณ
No
32°C or higher
$263 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a Tokyo minimum temperature of 27–29°C on July 31 because ensemble forecasts and climatological normals place the daily low in that narrow range during peak summer. Persistent high pressure and warm, humid air masses advected from the Pacific maintain overnight temperatures near or slightly above seasonal averages of 24–26°C, while urban heat retention limits radiative cooling. Short-range model runs show limited day-to-day variability, keeping probabilities for outcomes below 25°C or above 30°C well under 30%. New Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and updated numerical weather prediction output expected within 48 hours will determine whether any coastal breeze or increased cloud cover shifts the minimum by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,220วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a Tokyo minimum temperature of 27–29°C on July 31 because ensemble forecasts and climatological normals place the daily low in that narrow range during peak summer. Persistent high pressure and warm, humid air masses advected from the Pacific maintain overnight temperatures near or slightly above seasonal averages of 24–26°C, while urban heat retention limits radiative cooling. Short-range model runs show limited day-to-day variability, keeping probabilities for outcomes below 25°C or above 30°C well under 30%. New Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and updated numerical weather prediction output expected within 48 hours will determine whether any coastal breeze or increased cloud cover shifts the minimum by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,220วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a Tokyo minimum temperature of 27–29°C on July 31 because ensemble forecasts and climatological normals place the daily low in that narrow range during peak summer. Persistent high pressure and warm, humid air masses advected from the Pacific maintain overnight temperatures near or slightly above seasonal averages of 24–26°C, while urban heat retention limits radiative cooling. Short-range model runs show limited day-to-day variability, keeping probabilities for outcomes below 25°C or above 30°C well under 30%. New Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and updated numerical weather prediction output expected within 48 hours will determine whether any coastal breeze or increased cloud cover shifts the minimum by 1–2°C.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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