Recent inflation data above the 2% target, including elevated core PCE readings and energy price pressures tied to Middle East developments, have kept the FOMC in a data-dependent holding pattern through mid-2026. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% after June and July meetings, the 72.5% market-implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause reflects trader consensus that solid GDP growth, stable unemployment, and balanced labor conditions do not yet justify a cut or additional hikes before September. Hawkish dissents and dot-plot medians pointing to a higher year-end rate path have lifted “Other” odds to 28.5%, yet the negligible 0.4% on Pause–Pause–Cut underscores limited expectations for easing. The upcoming September FOMC and next inflation releases remain the key near-term catalysts.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Pause–Pause–Pause 73%
Other 29%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$750,014 Vol.
$750,014 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
73%
Pause–Pause–Cut
<1%
Other
29%
Pause–Pause–Pause 73%
Other 29%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$750,014 Vol.
$750,014 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$291,556 Vol.
73%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$79,783 Vol.
<1%
Other
$322,798 Vol.
29%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation data above the 2% target, including elevated core PCE readings and energy price pressures tied to Middle East developments, have kept the FOMC in a data-dependent holding pattern through mid-2026. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% after June and July meetings, the 72.5% market-implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause reflects trader consensus that solid GDP growth, stable unemployment, and balanced labor conditions do not yet justify a cut or additional hikes before September. Hawkish dissents and dot-plot medians pointing to a higher year-end rate path have lifted “Other” odds to 28.5%, yet the negligible 0.4% on Pause–Pause–Cut underscores limited expectations for easing. The upcoming September FOMC and next inflation releases remain the key near-term catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Binuksan ang Market: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$750,014Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 16, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation data above the 2% target, including elevated core PCE readings and energy price pressures tied to Middle East developments, have kept the FOMC in a data-dependent holding pattern through mid-2026. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% after June and July meetings, the 72.5% market-implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause reflects trader consensus that solid GDP growth, stable unemployment, and balanced labor conditions do not yet justify a cut or additional hikes before September. Hawkish dissents and dot-plot medians pointing to a higher year-end rate path have lifted “Other” odds to 28.5%, yet the negligible 0.4% on Pause–Pause–Cut underscores limited expectations for easing. The upcoming September FOMC and next inflation releases remain the key near-term catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$750,014Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 16, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation data above the 2% target, including elevated core PCE readings and energy price pressures tied to Middle East developments, have kept the FOMC in a data-dependent holding pattern through mid-2026. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% after June and July meetings, the 72.5% market-implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause reflects trader consensus that solid GDP growth, stable unemployment, and balanced labor conditions do not yet justify a cut or additional hikes before September. Hawkish dissents and dot-plot medians pointing to a higher year-end rate path have lifted “Other” odds to 28.5%, yet the negligible 0.4% on Pause–Pause–Cut underscores limited expectations for easing. The upcoming September FOMC and next inflation releases remain the key near-term catalysts.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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