Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by energy and supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, has driven the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% through the June and July 2026 meetings, with the latter featuring a 9-3 vote and three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Solid economic growth, stable unemployment near 4.3%, and Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability have reinforced trader consensus around consecutive pauses, keeping Pause–Pause–Pause and Other outcomes closely matched near 50% each. Market-implied odds price in the September 15-16 decision as the key swing factor, where incoming CPI data and any shift in labor-market signals could tip probabilities toward a hike or sustained hold.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Pause–Pause–Pause 51%
Other 51%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$832,076 Vol.
$832,076 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
51%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
51%
Pause–Pause–Pause 51%
Other 51%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$832,076 Vol.
$832,076 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$318,165 Vol.
51%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$99,115 Vol.
1%
Other
$358,919 Vol.
51%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by energy and supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, has driven the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% through the June and July 2026 meetings, with the latter featuring a 9-3 vote and three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Solid economic growth, stable unemployment near 4.3%, and Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability have reinforced trader consensus around consecutive pauses, keeping Pause–Pause–Pause and Other outcomes closely matched near 50% each. Market-implied odds price in the September 15-16 decision as the key swing factor, where incoming CPI data and any shift in labor-market signals could tip probabilities toward a hike or sustained hold.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Binuksan ang Market: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$832,076Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 16, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by energy and supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, has driven the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% through the June and July 2026 meetings, with the latter featuring a 9-3 vote and three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Solid economic growth, stable unemployment near 4.3%, and Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability have reinforced trader consensus around consecutive pauses, keeping Pause–Pause–Pause and Other outcomes closely matched near 50% each. Market-implied odds price in the September 15-16 decision as the key swing factor, where incoming CPI data and any shift in labor-market signals could tip probabilities toward a hike or sustained hold.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$832,076Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 16, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by energy and supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, has driven the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% through the June and July 2026 meetings, with the latter featuring a 9-3 vote and three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Solid economic growth, stable unemployment near 4.3%, and Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability have reinforced trader consensus around consecutive pauses, keeping Pause–Pause–Pause and Other outcomes closely matched near 50% each. Market-implied odds price in the September 15-16 decision as the key swing factor, where incoming CPI data and any shift in labor-market signals could tip probabilities toward a hike or sustained hold.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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