The 2026 Northern Nalšia district by-election, scheduled for 8 November with a possible runoff on 22 November, follows the sudden death of incumbent Jevgenij Šuklin of the Liberals' Movement, who had won the seat in 2024. Gintautas Kindurys of the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union holds the narrowest lead in trader pricing after topping the 2024 first-round vote share in the constituency, though he fell short in the second round against Šuklin. A crowded field of more than two dozen candidates, including Mėta Palauskaitė for the Liberals, Vladislav Kondratovič for the Social Democrats, and several smaller-party or independent entrants, keeps implied probabilities clustered near even odds for most contenders. Lithuanian single-member district rules, which require a majority for outright victory or advance the top two to a runoff, sustain the tight contest absent major late endorsements, turnout shifts among rural or regional voters, or clearer polling signals on second-round transfers.