Ongoing partisan disputes over Department of Homeland Security appropriations, exacerbated by immigration enforcement reforms, have triggered multiple partial government shutdowns in 2026, including a February lapse resolved via short-term continuing resolutions, fueling trader consensus on another funding breakdown before the September 30 fiscal year-end deadline. With Republicans holding a narrow House majority amid these battles, markets price in high shutdown risk under divided government. Concurrently, Democratic leads on the generic congressional ballot—averaging 5-6 points per recent polls—and forecast models from Cook Political Report and Inside Elections position Democrats as substantial favorites (around 83%) to flip House control in the November midterms, consistent with historical midterm losses for the president's party and current toss-up dynamics.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiBaşka bir ABD hükümeti kapanması ve House Winner 2026 mı?
Başka bir ABD hükümeti kapanması ve House Winner 2026 mı?
$315,091 Hac.
$315,091 Hac.
3 Kas 2026
Kapanma & Demokrat Parti
84%
Hükümet Kapanması & Cumhuriyetçi Parti
14%
$315,091 Hac.
$315,091 Hac.
3 Kas 2026
Kapanma & Demokrat Parti
$46,768 Hac.
84%
Hükümet Kapanması & Cumhuriyetçi Parti
$58,721 Hac.
14%
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.Ongoing partisan disputes over Department of Homeland Security appropriations, exacerbated by immigration enforcement reforms, have triggered multiple partial government shutdowns in 2026, including a February lapse resolved via short-term continuing resolutions, fueling trader consensus on another funding breakdown before the September 30 fiscal year-end deadline. With Republicans holding a narrow House majority amid these battles, markets price in high shutdown risk under divided government. Concurrently, Democratic leads on the generic congressional ballot—averaging 5-6 points per recent polls—and forecast models from Cook Political Report and Inside Elections position Democrats as substantial favorites (around 83%) to flip House control in the November midterms, consistent with historical midterm losses for the president's party and current toss-up dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 9, 2025, 1:44 PM ET
Hacim
$315,091Bitiş Tarihi
3 Kas 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 9, 2025, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.Ongoing partisan disputes over Department of Homeland Security appropriations, exacerbated by immigration enforcement reforms, have triggered multiple partial government shutdowns in 2026, including a February lapse resolved via short-term continuing resolutions, fueling trader consensus on another funding breakdown before the September 30 fiscal year-end deadline. With Republicans holding a narrow House majority amid these battles, markets price in high shutdown risk under divided government. Concurrently, Democratic leads on the generic congressional ballot—averaging 5-6 points per recent polls—and forecast models from Cook Political Report and Inside Elections position Democrats as substantial favorites (around 83%) to flip House control in the November midterms, consistent with historical midterm losses for the president's party and current toss-up dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
Hacim
$315,091Bitiş Tarihi
3 Kas 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 9, 2025, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ongoing partisan disputes over Department of Homeland Security appropriations, exacerbated by immigration enforcement reforms, have triggered multiple partial government shutdowns in 2026, including a February lapse resolved via short-term continuing resolutions, fueling trader consensus on another funding breakdown before the September 30 fiscal year-end deadline. With Republicans holding a narrow House majority amid these battles, markets price in high shutdown risk under divided government. Concurrently, Democratic leads on the generic congressional ballot—averaging 5-6 points per recent polls—and forecast models from Cook Political Report and Inside Elections position Democrats as substantial favorites (around 83%) to flip House control in the November midterms, consistent with historical midterm losses for the president's party and current toss-up dynamics.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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