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Any EU nation's debt downgraded before 2027?

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Any EU nation's debt downgraded before 2027?

75% olasılık
Polymarket
YENİ
75% olasılık
Polymarket
YENİ
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the long-term sovereign credit letter rating of any European Union member country is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between the date of market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices a 71.5% implied probability for any EU nation's sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, driven by persistent fiscal deficits exceeding 3% of GDP on average across developed European sovereigns and euro area public debt near 88% of GDP, as projected by S&P Global Ratings in early March 2026. France exemplifies vulnerabilities, with Moody's maintaining its Aa3 rating but negative outlook on April 11 amid rising interest payments projected above 5% of revenue by 2027 and political gridlock hindering budgetary consolidation under the EU fiscal framework. Negative outlooks dominate in central and eastern Europe, including Poland and Romania per Fitch, while U.S. tariff threats and geopolitical tensions curb growth forecasts, heightening downgrade risks ahead of scheduled agency reviews like S&P's on France in May.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the long-term sovereign credit letter rating of any European Union member country is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between the date of market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Hacim
$634
Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 6, 2026, 1:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the long-term sovereign credit letter rating of any European Union member country is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between the date of market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the long-term sovereign credit letter rating of any European Union member country is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between the date of market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices a 71.5% implied probability for any EU nation's sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, driven by persistent fiscal deficits exceeding 3% of GDP on average across developed European sovereigns and euro area public debt near 88% of GDP, as projected by S&P Global Ratings in early March 2026. France exemplifies vulnerabilities, with Moody's maintaining its Aa3 rating but negative outlook on April 11 amid rising interest payments projected above 5% of revenue by 2027 and political gridlock hindering budgetary consolidation under the EU fiscal framework. Negative outlooks dominate in central and eastern Europe, including Poland and Romania per Fitch, while U.S. tariff threats and geopolitical tensions curb growth forecasts, heightening downgrade risks ahead of scheduled agency reviews like S&P's on France in May.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the long-term sovereign credit letter rating of any European Union member country is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between the date of market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Hacim
$634
Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 6, 2026, 1:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the long-term sovereign credit letter rating of any European Union member country is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between the date of market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Sıkça Sorulan Sorular

"Any EU nation's debt downgraded before 2027?", yatırımcıların bu olayın gerçekleşip gerçekleşmeyeceğine inançlarına göre "Evet" veya "Hayır" hisseleri alıp sattığı Polymarket'teki bir tahmin piyasasıdır. Mevcut kitle kaynaklı olasılık "Yes" için 71%'dir. Örneğin, "Evet" 71¢ fiyatındaysa, piyasa toplu olarak bu olayın gerçekleşme olasılığını 71% olarak belirler. Bu oranlar, yatırımcılar yeni gelişmelere ve bilgilere tepki verdikçe sürekli değişir. Doğru sonuçtaki hisseler piyasa çözümlemesinde her biri 1$ karşılığında tahsil edilebilir.

"Any EU nation's debt downgraded before 2027?" Polymarket'te yeni oluşturulmuş bir piyasadır, Jan 6, 2026 tarihinde açıldı. Erken bir piyasa olarak, ilk yatırımcılar arasında yer alarak oranları belirleme ve piyasanın ilk fiyat sinyallerini oluşturma fırsatına sahipsiniz. Ayrıca piyasa zaman içinde ilgi kazandıkça hacmi ve işlem aktivitesini takip etmek için bu sayfayı yer imlerine ekleyebilirsiniz.

"Any EU nation's debt downgraded before 2027?" üzerinde işlem yapmak için cevabın "Evet" mi yoksa "Hayır" mı olacağına inandığınızı seçin. Her tarafın piyasanın ima edilen olasılığını yansıtan bir güncel fiyatı vardır. Miktarınızı girin ve "İşlem Yap"a tıklayın. "Evet" hisseleri satın alırsanız ve sonuç "Evet" olarak çözümlenirse, her hisse 1$ öder. "Hayır" olarak çözümlenirse, "Evet" hisseleriniz 0$ öder. Ayrıca kâr kilitlemek veya zararı kesmek isterseniz çözümlemeden önce istediğiniz zaman hisselerinizi satabilirsiniz.

"Any EU nation's debt downgraded before 2027?" için mevcut olasılık "Yes" için 71%'dir. Bu, Polymarket topluluğunun şu anda bu olayın gerçekleşme olasılığını 71% olarak gördüğü anlamına gelir. Bu oranlar gerçek işlemlere dayalı olarak gerçek zamanlı güncellenir ve piyasanın ne olmasını beklediğine dair sürekli güncellenen bir sinyal sağlar.

"Any EU nation's debt downgraded before 2027?" için çözümleme kuralları, her sonucun kazanan olarak ilan edilmesi için tam olarak ne olması gerektiğini tanımlar — sonucu belirlemek için kullanılan resmi veri kaynakları dahil. Bu sayfadaki yorumların üzerindeki "Kurallar" bölümünde tam çözümleme kriterlerini inceleyebilirsiniz. İşlem yapmadan önce kuralları dikkatli bir şekilde okumanızı öneririz, çünkü bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğini yöneten kesin koşulları, istisnai durumları ve kaynakları belirtir.