Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the CDU at 57.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus on September 20, driven by its incumbency advantage under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner and consistent leads in Sonntagsfragen. The latest INSA poll (April 7-14) shows CDU at 21%, ahead of SPD and AfD at 17% each, Grüne and Linke at 15%, amid proportional representation with a 5% threshold. Recent surveys indicate a slight CDU softening from 22% in February, offset by SPD gains, yet no challenger closes the gap; black-red coalition lacks majority, spotlighting potential three-party deals post-election. This positioning reflects polling trends and historical base rates for leading parties in state Landtagswahlen.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiBerlin Eyalet Seçimlerinin Kazananı
Berlin Eyalet Seçimlerinin Kazananı
CDU 57%
Grüne 15.0%
Linke 12%
AfD 9.2%
$2,572,559 Hac.
$2,572,559 Hac.
20 Eyl 2026
CDU
57%
Grüne
15%
Linke
12%
AfD
9%
SPD
7%
BSW
1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 57%
Grüne 15.0%
Linke 12%
AfD 9.2%
$2,572,559 Hac.
$2,572,559 Hac.
20 Eyl 2026
CDU
$15,140 Hac.
57%
Grüne
$27,805 Hac.
15%
Linke
$11,555 Hac.
12%
AfD
$2,187,196 Hac.
9%
SPD
$287,315 Hac.
7%
BSW
$26,247 Hac.
1%
FDP
$10,274 Hac.
<1%
FW
$7,026 Hac.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the CDU at 57.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus on September 20, driven by its incumbency advantage under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner and consistent leads in Sonntagsfragen. The latest INSA poll (April 7-14) shows CDU at 21%, ahead of SPD and AfD at 17% each, Grüne and Linke at 15%, amid proportional representation with a 5% threshold. Recent surveys indicate a slight CDU softening from 22% in February, offset by SPD gains, yet no challenger closes the gap; black-red coalition lacks majority, spotlighting potential three-party deals post-election. This positioning reflects polling trends and historical base rates for leading parties in state Landtagswahlen.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Hacim
$2,572,559Bitiş Tarihi
20 Eyl 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the CDU at 57.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus on September 20, driven by its incumbency advantage under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner and consistent leads in Sonntagsfragen. The latest INSA poll (April 7-14) shows CDU at 21%, ahead of SPD and AfD at 17% each, Grüne and Linke at 15%, amid proportional representation with a 5% threshold. Recent surveys indicate a slight CDU softening from 22% in February, offset by SPD gains, yet no challenger closes the gap; black-red coalition lacks majority, spotlighting potential three-party deals post-election. This positioning reflects polling trends and historical base rates for leading parties in state Landtagswahlen.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Hacim
$2,572,559Bitiş Tarihi
20 Eyl 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the CDU at 57.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus on September 20, driven by its incumbency advantage under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner and consistent leads in Sonntagsfragen. The latest INSA poll (April 7-14) shows CDU at 21%, ahead of SPD and AfD at 17% each, Grüne and Linke at 15%, amid proportional representation with a 5% threshold. Recent surveys indicate a slight CDU softening from 22% in February, offset by SPD gains, yet no challenger closes the gap; black-red coalition lacks majority, spotlighting potential three-party deals post-election. This positioning reflects polling trends and historical base rates for leading parties in state Landtagswahlen.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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