Polymarket traders have priced 5.0-5.5% year-on-year GDP growth for China Q1 2026 at a 100% implied probability following the National Bureau of Statistics' April 16 release confirming exactly 5.0% expansion to 33.42 trillion yuan, accelerating from Q4 2025's 4.5% and surpassing consensus forecasts of 4.8%. This reflects robust export momentum with 15% year-on-year foreign trade growth, resilient industrial output, and policy support amid property sector headwinds, aligning with Beijing's proactive fiscal stance. While revisions to preliminary data are rare, a significant downward adjustment or data discrepancies could theoretically challenge resolution, though trader consensus deems this improbable given the skin-in-the-game pricing.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi%5,0-%5,5 100.0%
%3,5'in altında <1%
%3,5-%4,0 <1%
%4,0-%4,5 <1%
$534,097 Hac.
$534,097 Hac.
17 Nis 2026
%3,5'in altında
Hayır
%3,5-%4,0
Hayır
%4,0-%4,5
Hayır
%4,5-%5,0
Hayır
%5,0-%5,5
Evet
%5,5-%6,0
Hayır
%6,0+
Hayır
%5,0-%5,5 100.0%
%3,5'in altında <1%
%3,5-%4,0 <1%
%4,0-%4,5 <1%
$534,097 Hac.
$534,097 Hac.
17 Nis 2026
%3,5'in altında
$41,663 Hac.
Hayır
%3,5-%4,0
$81,195 Hac.
Hayır
%4,0-%4,5
$86,099 Hac.
Hayır
%4,5-%5,0
$77,737 Hac.
Hayır
%5,0-%5,5
$87,662 Hac.
Evet
%5,5-%6,0
$120,647 Hac.
Hayır
%6,0+
$39,096 Hac.
Hayır
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlPolymarket traders have priced 5.0-5.5% year-on-year GDP growth for China Q1 2026 at a 100% implied probability following the National Bureau of Statistics' April 16 release confirming exactly 5.0% expansion to 33.42 trillion yuan, accelerating from Q4 2025's 4.5% and surpassing consensus forecasts of 4.8%. This reflects robust export momentum with 15% year-on-year foreign trade growth, resilient industrial output, and policy support amid property sector headwinds, aligning with Beijing's proactive fiscal stance. While revisions to preliminary data are rare, a significant downward adjustment or data discrepancies could theoretically challenge resolution, though trader consensus deems this improbable given the skin-in-the-game pricing.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ET
Hacim
$534,097Bitiş Tarihi
17 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Sonuç önerildi: Evet
İtiraz yok
Kesin sonuç: Evet
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlPolymarket traders have priced 5.0-5.5% year-on-year GDP growth for China Q1 2026 at a 100% implied probability following the National Bureau of Statistics' April 16 release confirming exactly 5.0% expansion to 33.42 trillion yuan, accelerating from Q4 2025's 4.5% and surpassing consensus forecasts of 4.8%. This reflects robust export momentum with 15% year-on-year foreign trade growth, resilient industrial output, and policy support amid property sector headwinds, aligning with Beijing's proactive fiscal stance. While revisions to preliminary data are rare, a significant downward adjustment or data discrepancies could theoretically challenge resolution, though trader consensus deems this improbable given the skin-in-the-game pricing.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Hacim
$534,097Bitiş Tarihi
17 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Sonuç önerildi: Evet
İtiraz yok
Kesin sonuç: Evet
Polymarket traders have priced 5.0-5.5% year-on-year GDP growth for China Q1 2026 at a 100% implied probability following the National Bureau of Statistics' April 16 release confirming exactly 5.0% expansion to 33.42 trillion yuan, accelerating from Q4 2025's 4.5% and surpassing consensus forecasts of 4.8%. This reflects robust export momentum with 15% year-on-year foreign trade growth, resilient industrial output, and policy support amid property sector headwinds, aligning with Beijing's proactive fiscal stance. While revisions to preliminary data are rare, a significant downward adjustment or data discrepancies could theoretically challenge resolution, though trader consensus deems this improbable given the skin-in-the-game pricing.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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