Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Chicago's highest temperature on April 18, with the National Weather Service normal of 60°F anchoring clusters around 60-69°F but a 26% implied probability for 53°F or below signaling risks from persistent cloud cover or a stalled frontal boundary. Ensemble outputs from GFS and ECMWF show spread due to variable boundary layer mixing, Lake Michigan moderation, and timing of any diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies—cooler outcomes favored if overcast dominates amid recent spring fluctuations, while southerly winds could push toward upper 60s. New 00Z model runs expected overnight may sharpen guidance ahead of resolution at O'Hare or Midway observations.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiHighest temperature in Chicago on April 18?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 18?
68-69°F 29%
72°F or higher 26%
60-61°F 21%
56-57°F 19%
YENİ
YENİ
18 Nis 2026
53°F or below
11%
54-55°F
12%
56-57°F
19%
58-59°F
7%
60-61°F
21%
62-63°F
19%
64-65°F
19%
66-67°F
20%
68-69°F
29%
70-71°F
12%
72°F or higher
26%
68-69°F 29%
72°F or higher 26%
60-61°F 21%
56-57°F 19%
YENİ
YENİ
18 Nis 2026
53°F or below
$172 Hac.
11%
54-55°F
$20 Hac.
12%
56-57°F
$209 Hac.
19%
58-59°F
$191 Hac.
7%
60-61°F
$0 Hac.
21%
62-63°F
$59 Hac.
19%
64-65°F
$40 Hac.
19%
66-67°F
$23 Hac.
20%
68-69°F
$20 Hac.
29%
70-71°F
$85 Hac.
12%
72°F or higher
$5 Hac.
26%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Chicago's highest temperature on April 18, with the National Weather Service normal of 60°F anchoring clusters around 60-69°F but a 26% implied probability for 53°F or below signaling risks from persistent cloud cover or a stalled frontal boundary. Ensemble outputs from GFS and ECMWF show spread due to variable boundary layer mixing, Lake Michigan moderation, and timing of any diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies—cooler outcomes favored if overcast dominates amid recent spring fluctuations, while southerly winds could push toward upper 60s. New 00Z model runs expected overnight may sharpen guidance ahead of resolution at O'Hare or Midway observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Piyasa Açıldı: Apr 16, 2026, 12:41 AM ET
Hacim
$212Bitiş Tarihi
18 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 16, 2026, 12:41 AM ETÇözümleme Kaynağı
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Chicago's highest temperature on April 18, with the National Weather Service normal of 60°F anchoring clusters around 60-69°F but a 26% implied probability for 53°F or below signaling risks from persistent cloud cover or a stalled frontal boundary. Ensemble outputs from GFS and ECMWF show spread due to variable boundary layer mixing, Lake Michigan moderation, and timing of any diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies—cooler outcomes favored if overcast dominates amid recent spring fluctuations, while southerly winds could push toward upper 60s. New 00Z model runs expected overnight may sharpen guidance ahead of resolution at O'Hare or Midway observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Hacim
$212Bitiş Tarihi
18 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 16, 2026, 12:41 AM ETÇözümleme Kaynağı
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Chicago's highest temperature on April 18, with the National Weather Service normal of 60°F anchoring clusters around 60-69°F but a 26% implied probability for 53°F or below signaling risks from persistent cloud cover or a stalled frontal boundary. Ensemble outputs from GFS and ECMWF show spread due to variable boundary layer mixing, Lake Michigan moderation, and timing of any diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies—cooler outcomes favored if overcast dominates amid recent spring fluctuations, while southerly winds could push toward upper 60s. New 00Z model runs expected overnight may sharpen guidance ahead of resolution at O'Hare or Midway observations.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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