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Seçimler·Orta Doğu

Lübnan Parlamento Seçimlerinin Kazananı

Market icon
Seçimler·Orta Doğu

Lübnan Parlamento Seçimlerinin Kazananı

Amal Hareketi (Amal) 13.1%

Taqaddom Partisi 12.3%

Lübnan Güçleri (LF) 8%

Bağımsızlık Hareketi (IM) 4.3%

Polymarket

$481,833 Hac.

Amal Hareketi (Amal) 13.1%

Taqaddom Partisi 12.3%

Lübnan Güçleri (LF) 8%

Bağımsızlık Hareketi (IM) 4.3%

Polymarket

$481,833 Hac.

Amal Hareketi (Amal)

$42,717 Hac.

13%

Taqaddom Partisi

$4,606 Hac.

9%

Lübnan Güçleri (LF)

$145,118 Hac.

8%

Bağımsızlık Hareketi (IM)

$2,444 Hac.

4%

İslami Hayır Projeleri Derneği (ICPA)

$2,885 Hac.

3%

Ulusal Diyalog Partisi (NDP)

$41,073 Hac.

3%

Marada Hareketi (MH)

$2,313 Hac.

2%

ReLebanon

$2,096 Hac.

2%

Hizbullah (Hezb)

$41,893 Hac.

2%

Ulusal Liberal Parti (ULP)

$2,970 Hac.

2%

Popüler Nasırî Örgütü (PNO)

$2,221 Hac.

1%

Özgür Yurtsever Hareketi (FPM)

$72,509 Hac.

1%

Lübnan'daki Arap Sosyalist Baas Partisi (Baas)

$3,883 Hac.

1%

Haysiyet Hareketi (DM)

$22,250 Hac.

1%

Mada Partisi (Mada)

$22,526 Hac.

1%

Kataeb Partisi (Kataeb)

$2,934 Hac.

1%

Watani İttifakı (Watani)

$3,276 Hac.

1%

Ermeni Devrimci Federasyonu (EDF)

$4,663 Hac.

1%

İslam Grubu (İG)

$2,970 Hac.

1%

Birlik Partisi (BP)

$2,618 Hac.

1%

İlerici Sosyalist Parti (PSP)

$47,054 Hac.

<1%

Lana – Sosyal Demokrat Parti (Lana)

$3,966 Hac.

<1%

Khatt Ahmar

$2,850 Hac.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliament extended its mandate by two years to 2028 on March 9 amid the intensifying Israel-Hezbollah conflict, displacement crisis, and security concerns, fostering a wide-open field where no outcome exceeds 14% implied probability and trader consensus remains fragmented. Amal Movement leads due to Speaker Nabih Berri's central role in the extension vote and its entrenched Shia base in the south, bolstered by alliances with Hezbollah despite the group's military setbacks. Taqaddom Party trails with Sunni appeal under Ashraf Rifi, while Lebanese Forces draws Christian anti-Hezbollah voters; differentiators hinge on sectarian quotas, proportional representation, and diaspora registration. Support consolidation could arise from ceasefire deals, economic reforms, or pre-election coalitions, with no snap election currently signaled.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Hacim
$481,833
Bitiş Tarihi
31 May 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliament extended its mandate by two years to 2028 on March 9 amid the intensifying Israel-Hezbollah conflict, displacement crisis, and security concerns, fostering a wide-open field where no outcome exceeds 14% implied probability and trader consensus remains fragmented. Amal Movement leads due to Speaker Nabih Berri's central role in the extension vote and its entrenched Shia base in the south, bolstered by alliances with Hezbollah despite the group's military setbacks. Taqaddom Party trails with Sunni appeal under Ashraf Rifi, while Lebanese Forces draws Christian anti-Hezbollah voters; differentiators hinge on sectarian quotas, proportional representation, and diaspora registration. Support consolidation could arise from ceasefire deals, economic reforms, or pre-election coalitions, with no snap election currently signaled.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Hacim
$481,833
Bitiş Tarihi
31 May 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.

Sıkça Sorulan Sorular

"Lübnan Parlamento Seçimlerinin Kazananı", yatırımcıların ne olacağına inandıklarına göre hisse alıp sattığı 23 olası sonuçlu Polymarket'teki bir tahmin piyasasıdır. Mevcut lider sonuç 13% ile "Amal Hareketi (Amal)", ardından 9% ile "Taqaddom Partisi" gelmektedir. Fiyatlar gerçek zamanlı kitle kaynaklı olasılıkları yansıtır. Örneğin, 13¢ fiyatlı bir hisse, piyasanın toplu olarak o sonuca 13% olasılık atadığı anlamına gelir. Bu oranlar, yatırımcılar yeni gelişmelere ve bilgilere tepki verdikçe sürekli değişir. Doğru sonuçtaki hisseler piyasa çözümlemesinde her biri 1$ karşılığında tahsil edilebilir.

Bugün itibarıyla "Lübnan Parlamento Seçimlerinin Kazananı" toplam $481.8K işlem hacmi oluşturmuştur piyasa Jan 6, 2026 tarihinde açıldığından beri. Bu düzeyde işlem aktivitesi Polymarket topluluğundan güçlü katılımı yansıtır ve mevcut oranların derin bir piyasa katılımcıları havuzu tarafından bilgilendirilmesini sağlar. Bu sayfada canlı fiyat hareketlerini takip edebilir ve herhangi bir sonuç üzerinde doğrudan işlem yapabilirsiniz.

"Lübnan Parlamento Seçimlerinin Kazananı" üzerinde işlem yapmak için bu sayfada listelenen 23 mevcut sonuca göz atın. Her sonuç, piyasanın ima edilen olasılığını temsil eden bir güncel fiyat gösterir. Pozisyon almak için en olası olduğuna inandığınız sonucu seçin, lehine işlem yapmak için "Evet" veya aleyhine işlem yapmak için "Hayır" seçin, miktarınızı girin ve "İşlem Yap"a tıklayın. Piyasa çözümlendiğinde seçtiğiniz sonuç doğruysa, "Evet" hisseleriniz her biri 1$ öder. Yanlışsa 0$ öderler. Ayrıca kâr kilitlemek veya zararı kesmek isterseniz çözümlemeden önce istediğiniz zaman hisselerinizi satabilirsiniz.

"Lübnan Parlamento Seçimlerinin Kazananı" için mevcut favori 13% ile "Amal Hareketi (Amal)"dir, yani piyasa bu sonuca 13% olasılık atamaktadır. En yakın sonuç 9% ile "Taqaddom Partisi"dir. Bu oranlar yatırımcılar hisse alıp sattıkça gerçek zamanlı güncellenir, bu nedenle en olası olanın en son kolektif görüşünü yansıtır. Yeni bilgiler ortaya çıktıkça oranların nasıl değiştiğini takip etmek için sık sık kontrol edin veya bu sayfayı yer imlerine ekleyin.

"Lübnan Parlamento Seçimlerinin Kazananı" için çözümleme kuralları, her sonucun kazanan olarak ilan edilmesi için tam olarak ne olması gerektiğini tanımlar — sonucu belirlemek için kullanılan resmi veri kaynakları dahil. Bu sayfadaki yorumların üzerindeki "Kurallar" bölümünde tam çözümleme kriterlerini inceleyebilirsiniz. İşlem yapmadan önce kuralları dikkatli bir şekilde okumanızı öneririz, çünkü bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğini yöneten kesin koşulları, istisnai durumları ve kaynakları belirtir.