Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 93% implied probability for a U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026, driven by de-escalation following early-year rhetoric after the January 3 U.S. military intervention in Venezuela. President Petro's January warnings of a "real threat" of U.S. action prompted March 31 assurances from the Trump administration against targeting him, amid ongoing counternarcotics partnership evidenced by FY26 Maritime Staff Talks in late March. With Colombia's presidential elections slated for May and no military buildup, diplomatic signals, or territorial disputes indicating escalation, traders see formidable institutional and geopolitical barriers—such as alliance history and congressional oversight—to any offensive action barring unforeseen provocations.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiEvet
$25,325 Hac.
$25,325 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$25,325 Hac.
$25,325 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 93% implied probability for a U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026, driven by de-escalation following early-year rhetoric after the January 3 U.S. military intervention in Venezuela. President Petro's January warnings of a "real threat" of U.S. action prompted March 31 assurances from the Trump administration against targeting him, amid ongoing counternarcotics partnership evidenced by FY26 Maritime Staff Talks in late March. With Colombia's presidential elections slated for May and no military buildup, diplomatic signals, or territorial disputes indicating escalation, traders see formidable institutional and geopolitical barriers—such as alliance history and congressional oversight—to any offensive action barring unforeseen provocations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ET
Hacim
$25,325Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 93% implied probability for a U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026, driven by de-escalation following early-year rhetoric after the January 3 U.S. military intervention in Venezuela. President Petro's January warnings of a "real threat" of U.S. action prompted March 31 assurances from the Trump administration against targeting him, amid ongoing counternarcotics partnership evidenced by FY26 Maritime Staff Talks in late March. With Colombia's presidential elections slated for May and no military buildup, diplomatic signals, or territorial disputes indicating escalation, traders see formidable institutional and geopolitical barriers—such as alliance history and congressional oversight—to any offensive action barring unforeseen provocations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$25,325Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 93% implied probability for a U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026, driven by de-escalation following early-year rhetoric after the January 3 U.S. military intervention in Venezuela. President Petro's January warnings of a "real threat" of U.S. action prompted March 31 assurances from the Trump administration against targeting him, amid ongoing counternarcotics partnership evidenced by FY26 Maritime Staff Talks in late March. With Colombia's presidential elections slated for May and no military buildup, diplomatic signals, or territorial disputes indicating escalation, traders see formidable institutional and geopolitical barriers—such as alliance history and congressional oversight—to any offensive action barring unforeseen provocations.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Sıkça Sorulan Sorular