Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs point to a typical summer marine layer dominating San Francisco on July 16, favoring a daily high near 68–69 °F at the official airport station. Persistent onshore flow and a moderate marine inversion are expected to limit warming, though slight variations in wind speed or the timing of any afternoon clearing could shift the peak by a degree or two. Recent days have shown brief offshore wind episodes that briefly elevated readings into the mid-70s, illustrating how quickly the coastal temperature gradient can respond to changes in pressure patterns. With model spread still present around the 66–71 °F range, traders are pricing in genuine forecast uncertainty ahead of final observational data.