Recent short-range forecasts from agencies including the National Weather Service indicate San Francisco will experience typical early-September marine-layer conditions on September 2, with onshore southwest flow limiting daytime warming and producing partly cloudy skies. Model consensus points to afternoon highs in the upper 60s to low 70s Fahrenheit at official stations, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average near 70°F for the date. This pattern explains the market’s heavy weighting toward the 70–73°F range, as traders incorporate the narrow uncertainty band around official thermometer readings rather than broader regional or record values. No anomalous heat or strong offshore flow has emerged to shift probabilities higher.