**Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten holds a strong position against Republican Niki Conforti in Illinois’s 6th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election.** Casten secured his primary with roughly 76% of the vote in March, while Conforti won the GOP nomination by a similar margin, leaving both candidates with clear paths but limited recent movement in the race. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Democratic, reflecting the district’s suburban Chicago base, Casten’s 2024 reelection margin near eight points, and a national environment showing Democratic advantages in generic ballot polling. The margin-of-victory buckets cluster around the mid-teens to mid-twenties for a Democratic win, consistent with historical performance and incumbency benefits in this D+3 PVI district. Low-probability Republican victory pricing at 0.1% underscores trader consensus that only a major national swing, late scandal, or unusually low turnout would produce an upset. Key variables that could shift the exact margin include turnout among suburban independents, any additional candidate spending surges, or broader midterm dynamics between now and Election Day.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIL-06 House Election Margin of Victory
IL-06 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 20-25% 21%
Democrat 25-30% 19%
Democrat 15-20% 18.1%
Democrat 10-15% 14.0%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 35%+
5%
Democrat 30-35%
13%
Democrat 25-30%
19%
Democrat 20-25%
27%
Democrat 15-20%
24%
Democrat 10-15%
14%
Democrat 5-10%
6%
Democrat 0-5%
4%
Republican Wins
<1%
Democrat 20-25% 21%
Democrat 25-30% 19%
Democrat 15-20% 18.1%
Democrat 10-15% 14.0%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 35%+
$137 Обс.
5%
Democrat 30-35%
$1,348 Обс.
13%
Democrat 25-30%
$341 Обс.
19%
Democrat 20-25%
$211 Обс.
27%
Democrat 15-20%
$97 Обс.
24%
Democrat 10-15%
$221 Обс.
14%
Democrat 5-10%
$1,609 Обс.
6%
Democrat 0-5%
$266 Обс.
4%
Republican Wins
$455 Обс.
<1%
The 2026 IL-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IL-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten holds a strong position against Republican Niki Conforti in Illinois’s 6th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election.** Casten secured his primary with roughly 76% of the vote in March, while Conforti won the GOP nomination by a similar margin, leaving both candidates with clear paths but limited recent movement in the race. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Democratic, reflecting the district’s suburban Chicago base, Casten’s 2024 reelection margin near eight points, and a national environment showing Democratic advantages in generic ballot polling. The margin-of-victory buckets cluster around the mid-teens to mid-twenties for a Democratic win, consistent with historical performance and incumbency benefits in this D+3 PVI district. Low-probability Republican victory pricing at 0.1% underscores trader consensus that only a major national swing, late scandal, or unusually low turnout would produce an upset. Key variables that could shift the exact margin include turnout among suburban independents, any additional candidate spending surges, or broader midterm dynamics between now and Election Day.
The 2026 IL-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IL-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IL-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 10, 2026, 10:53 AM ET
Обсяг
$4,685Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 10, 2026, 10:53 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 IL-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IL-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten holds a strong position against Republican Niki Conforti in Illinois’s 6th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election.** Casten secured his primary with roughly 76% of the vote in March, while Conforti won the GOP nomination by a similar margin, leaving both candidates with clear paths but limited recent movement in the race. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Democratic, reflecting the district’s suburban Chicago base, Casten’s 2024 reelection margin near eight points, and a national environment showing Democratic advantages in generic ballot polling. The margin-of-victory buckets cluster around the mid-teens to mid-twenties for a Democratic win, consistent with historical performance and incumbency benefits in this D+3 PVI district. Low-probability Republican victory pricing at 0.1% underscores trader consensus that only a major national swing, late scandal, or unusually low turnout would produce an upset. Key variables that could shift the exact margin include turnout among suburban independents, any additional candidate spending surges, or broader midterm dynamics between now and Election Day.
The 2026 IL-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IL-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IL-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$4,685Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 10, 2026, 10:53 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten holds a strong position against Republican Niki Conforti in Illinois’s 6th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election.** Casten secured his primary with roughly 76% of the vote in March, while Conforti won the GOP nomination by a similar margin, leaving both candidates with clear paths but limited recent movement in the race. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Democratic, reflecting the district’s suburban Chicago base, Casten’s 2024 reelection margin near eight points, and a national environment showing Democratic advantages in generic ballot polling. The margin-of-victory buckets cluster around the mid-teens to mid-twenties for a Democratic win, consistent with historical performance and incumbency benefits in this D+3 PVI district. Low-probability Republican victory pricing at 0.1% underscores trader consensus that only a major national swing, late scandal, or unusually low turnout would produce an upset. Key variables that could shift the exact margin include turnout among suburban independents, any additional candidate spending surges, or broader midterm dynamics between now and Election Day.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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