Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate mild overnight conditions for Amsterdam on September 18 under persistent southwesterly flow and mostly cloudy skies, keeping the minimum temperature likely between 12–15 °C and underpinning the closely matched market-implied odds across the 12–17 °C outcomes. Differentiation among these bins hinges on small variations in cloud cover timing, which modulates radiative cooling, and boundary-layer wind speeds that influence mixing with the relatively warm North Sea air mass. Historical September averages near 11 °C provide context, but current model consensus shows limited potential for stronger cooling unless a clearer slot develops late in the night. Updated high-resolution runs and local observations from KNMI will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 18?
17°C or higher 67%
15°C 39%
16°C 39%
13°C 27%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 18, 2026
7°C or below
2%
8°C
2%
9°C
2%
10°C
21%
11°C
22%
12°C
24%
13°C
27%
14°C
23%
15°C
39%
16°C
39%
17°C or higher
67%
17°C or higher 67%
15°C 39%
16°C 39%
13°C 27%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 18, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Обс.
2%
8°C
$0 Обс.
2%
9°C
$0 Обс.
2%
10°C
$8 Обс.
21%
11°C
$0 Обс.
22%
12°C
$0 Обс.
24%
13°C
$0 Обс.
27%
14°C
$0 Обс.
23%
15°C
$0 Обс.
39%
16°C
$0 Обс.
39%
17°C or higher
$0 Обс.
67%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate mild overnight conditions for Amsterdam on September 18 under persistent southwesterly flow and mostly cloudy skies, keeping the minimum temperature likely between 12–15 °C and underpinning the closely matched market-implied odds across the 12–17 °C outcomes. Differentiation among these bins hinges on small variations in cloud cover timing, which modulates radiative cooling, and boundary-layer wind speeds that influence mixing with the relatively warm North Sea air mass. Historical September averages near 11 °C provide context, but current model consensus shows limited potential for stronger cooling unless a clearer slot develops late in the night. Updated high-resolution runs and local observations from KNMI will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 16, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Обсяг
$8Дата завершення
Sep 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 16, 2026, 12:31 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate mild overnight conditions for Amsterdam on September 18 under persistent southwesterly flow and mostly cloudy skies, keeping the minimum temperature likely between 12–15 °C and underpinning the closely matched market-implied odds across the 12–17 °C outcomes. Differentiation among these bins hinges on small variations in cloud cover timing, which modulates radiative cooling, and boundary-layer wind speeds that influence mixing with the relatively warm North Sea air mass. Historical September averages near 11 °C provide context, but current model consensus shows limited potential for stronger cooling unless a clearer slot develops late in the night. Updated high-resolution runs and local observations from KNMI will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$8Дата завершення
Sep 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 16, 2026, 12:31 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate mild overnight conditions for Amsterdam on September 18 under persistent southwesterly flow and mostly cloudy skies, keeping the minimum temperature likely between 12–15 °C and underpinning the closely matched market-implied odds across the 12–17 °C outcomes. Differentiation among these bins hinges on small variations in cloud cover timing, which modulates radiative cooling, and boundary-layer wind speeds that influence mixing with the relatively warm North Sea air mass. Historical September averages near 11 °C provide context, but current model consensus shows limited potential for stronger cooling unless a clearer slot develops late in the night. Updated high-resolution runs and local observations from KNMI will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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