Recent forecast model runs for Istanbul show notable spread in overnight minimum temperatures for September 18, with official guidance indicating lows near 16–19°C amid northeast winds, variable cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit radiative cooling. This genuine uncertainty in boundary-layer conditions and steering patterns underpins the closely matched 45% market-implied odds on extremes of 13°C or below versus 23°C or higher. Historical September climatology for the region centers around 16–18°C minima, providing context for why mid-range outcomes like 18–22°C hold 20–22% probabilities. Updated high-resolution model outputs and surface observations expected overnight will likely refine the range ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 18?
13°C or below 90%
23°C or higher 90%
14°C 40%
15°C 40%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 18, 2026
13°C or below
90%
14°C
40%
15°C
40%
16°C
40%
17°C
40%
18°C
22%
19°C
22%
20°C
22%
21°C
40%
22°C
40%
23°C or higher
90%
13°C or below 90%
23°C or higher 90%
14°C 40%
15°C 40%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 18, 2026
13°C or below
$0 Обс.
90%
14°C
$0 Обс.
40%
15°C
$0 Обс.
40%
16°C
$0 Обс.
40%
17°C
$0 Обс.
40%
18°C
$0 Обс.
22%
19°C
$0 Обс.
22%
20°C
$0 Обс.
22%
21°C
$0 Обс.
40%
22°C
$0 Обс.
40%
23°C or higher
$0 Обс.
90%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs for Istanbul show notable spread in overnight minimum temperatures for September 18, with official guidance indicating lows near 16–19°C amid northeast winds, variable cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit radiative cooling. This genuine uncertainty in boundary-layer conditions and steering patterns underpins the closely matched 45% market-implied odds on extremes of 13°C or below versus 23°C or higher. Historical September climatology for the region centers around 16–18°C minima, providing context for why mid-range outcomes like 18–22°C hold 20–22% probabilities. Updated high-resolution model outputs and surface observations expected overnight will likely refine the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 16, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 16, 2026, 12:31 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs for Istanbul show notable spread in overnight minimum temperatures for September 18, with official guidance indicating lows near 16–19°C amid northeast winds, variable cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit radiative cooling. This genuine uncertainty in boundary-layer conditions and steering patterns underpins the closely matched 45% market-implied odds on extremes of 13°C or below versus 23°C or higher. Historical September climatology for the region centers around 16–18°C minima, providing context for why mid-range outcomes like 18–22°C hold 20–22% probabilities. Updated high-resolution model outputs and surface observations expected overnight will likely refine the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 16, 2026, 12:31 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model runs for Istanbul show notable spread in overnight minimum temperatures for September 18, with official guidance indicating lows near 16–19°C amid northeast winds, variable cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit radiative cooling. This genuine uncertainty in boundary-layer conditions and steering patterns underpins the closely matched 45% market-implied odds on extremes of 13°C or below versus 23°C or higher. Historical September climatology for the region centers around 16–18°C minima, providing context for why mid-range outcomes like 18–22°C hold 20–22% probabilities. Updated high-resolution model outputs and surface observations expected overnight will likely refine the range ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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