Forecast models from the National Weather Service and major ensembles indicate a warm, stable air mass over the Northeast with light winds and limited cloud cover overnight into August 10, supporting minimum temperatures in the low-to-mid 70s°F for New York City. Recent guidance shows the overnight low bottoming near 73–75°F after midnight before rising, consistent with the month’s above-average temperature outlook and the absence of any incoming cold front or stronger northerly flow. Historical Central Park climatology places typical August lows near 70°F, so the current pattern reflects a modest warm anomaly that has kept trader-implied probabilities concentrated on the 72–77°F range. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 12–18 hours will determine whether the minimum settles closer to 72–73°F or edges higher into the mid-70s.