Recent ensemble forecasts from European models show overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light southerly winds as a weakening high-pressure ridge shifts eastward, producing minimum temperatures clustered between 14–16 °C for Warsaw on 30 August. Light winds and moderate humidity limit extreme cooling, while subtle differences in cloud cover timing and boundary-layer mixing create the tight spread reflected in trader-implied odds near 14 °C and 11 °C. Historical late-August climatology places typical lows near 15 °C, so current consensus aligns with normal variability absent stronger advection or precipitation. Updated model runs and IMGW guidance tonight will refine the precise threshold before market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Warsaw on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 30?
16°C 58%
14°C 44%
11°C 34%
18°C 31%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 30, 2026
9°C or below
6%
10°C
23%
11°C
34%
12°C
31%
13°C
30%
14°C
44%
15°C
27%
16°C
58%
17°C
28%
18°C
31%
19°C or higher
16%
16°C 58%
14°C 44%
11°C 34%
18°C 31%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 30, 2026
9°C or below
$130 Обс.
6%
10°C
$0 Обс.
23%
11°C
$0 Обс.
34%
12°C
$0 Обс.
31%
13°C
$0 Обс.
30%
14°C
$0 Обс.
44%
15°C
$0 Обс.
27%
16°C
$0 Обс.
58%
17°C
$0 Обс.
28%
18°C
$135 Обс.
31%
19°C or higher
$57 Обс.
16%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from European models show overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light southerly winds as a weakening high-pressure ridge shifts eastward, producing minimum temperatures clustered between 14–16 °C for Warsaw on 30 August. Light winds and moderate humidity limit extreme cooling, while subtle differences in cloud cover timing and boundary-layer mixing create the tight spread reflected in trader-implied odds near 14 °C and 11 °C. Historical late-August climatology places typical lows near 15 °C, so current consensus aligns with normal variability absent stronger advection or precipitation. Updated model runs and IMGW guidance tonight will refine the precise threshold before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$322Дата завершення
Aug 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from European models show overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light southerly winds as a weakening high-pressure ridge shifts eastward, producing minimum temperatures clustered between 14–16 °C for Warsaw on 30 August. Light winds and moderate humidity limit extreme cooling, while subtle differences in cloud cover timing and boundary-layer mixing create the tight spread reflected in trader-implied odds near 14 °C and 11 °C. Historical late-August climatology places typical lows near 15 °C, so current consensus aligns with normal variability absent stronger advection or precipitation. Updated model runs and IMGW guidance tonight will refine the precise threshold before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$322Дата завершення
Aug 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from European models show overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light southerly winds as a weakening high-pressure ridge shifts eastward, producing minimum temperatures clustered between 14–16 °C for Warsaw on 30 August. Light winds and moderate humidity limit extreme cooling, while subtle differences in cloud cover timing and boundary-layer mixing create the tight spread reflected in trader-implied odds near 14 °C and 11 °C. Historical late-August climatology places typical lows near 15 °C, so current consensus aligns with normal variability absent stronger advection or precipitation. Updated model runs and IMGW guidance tonight will refine the precise threshold before market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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