Recent forecast consensus from MetService and global models shows Wellington's August 31 overnight low likely ranging 6–10 °C under strengthening westerlies and a 70 % chance of showers, reflecting typical late-winter variability in the southern mid-latitudes. This supports the elevated market-implied odds for 10–12 °C outcomes, while the 43.5 % on 15 °C or higher captures uncertainty from model spread and recent above-average temperatures that could keep readings milder if northerlies persist. Historical August minima average near 8 °C, with resolution hinging on the official daily minimum at the Wellington airport station. Updated model runs and MetService briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of the close.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Wellington on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 31?
15°C or higher 90%
12°C 50%
13°C 50%
9°C 49%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 31, 2026
5°C or below
5%
6°C
6%
7°C
11%
8°C
24%
9°C
49%
10°C
28%
11°C
30%
12°C
50%
13°C
50%
14°C
2%
15°C or higher
90%
15°C or higher 90%
12°C 50%
13°C 50%
9°C 49%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 31, 2026
5°C or below
$0 Обс.
5%
6°C
$0 Обс.
6%
7°C
$0 Обс.
11%
8°C
$0 Обс.
24%
9°C
$0 Обс.
49%
10°C
$0 Обс.
28%
11°C
$0 Обс.
30%
12°C
$0 Обс.
50%
13°C
$0 Обс.
50%
14°C
$0 Обс.
2%
15°C or higher
$0 Обс.
90%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from MetService and global models shows Wellington's August 31 overnight low likely ranging 6–10 °C under strengthening westerlies and a 70 % chance of showers, reflecting typical late-winter variability in the southern mid-latitudes. This supports the elevated market-implied odds for 10–12 °C outcomes, while the 43.5 % on 15 °C or higher captures uncertainty from model spread and recent above-average temperatures that could keep readings milder if northerlies persist. Historical August minima average near 8 °C, with resolution hinging on the official daily minimum at the Wellington airport station. Updated model runs and MetService briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of the close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 29, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 29, 2026, 12:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from MetService and global models shows Wellington's August 31 overnight low likely ranging 6–10 °C under strengthening westerlies and a 70 % chance of showers, reflecting typical late-winter variability in the southern mid-latitudes. This supports the elevated market-implied odds for 10–12 °C outcomes, while the 43.5 % on 15 °C or higher captures uncertainty from model spread and recent above-average temperatures that could keep readings milder if northerlies persist. Historical August minima average near 8 °C, with resolution hinging on the official daily minimum at the Wellington airport station. Updated model runs and MetService briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of the close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 29, 2026, 12:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from MetService and global models shows Wellington's August 31 overnight low likely ranging 6–10 °C under strengthening westerlies and a 70 % chance of showers, reflecting typical late-winter variability in the southern mid-latitudes. This supports the elevated market-implied odds for 10–12 °C outcomes, while the 43.5 % on 15 °C or higher captures uncertainty from model spread and recent above-average temperatures that could keep readings milder if northerlies persist. Historical August minima average near 8 °C, with resolution hinging on the official daily minimum at the Wellington airport station. Updated model runs and MetService briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of the close.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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