Incumbent Democrat Eugene Vindman holds a structural edge in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District through name recognition and fundraising after winning the seat in 2024, while Republican nominee Douglas Ollivant brings military experience and appeals to suburban and exurban voters across Prince William, Stafford, and Spotsylvania counties. The district’s partisan lean, shaped by recent redistricting and rated Likely Democratic by multiple forecasters, supports trader consensus around double-digit Democratic margins, yet its mix of Northern Virginia growth areas and more conservative central counties keeps the race within reach for Republicans if turnout or national conditions shift. Low combined probability on Republican victories reflects limited recent polling movement and the absence of major campaign-altering events since the August primaries, with general-election dynamics such as candidate endorsements, early voting patterns, and economic messaging still able to influence final vote shares before November 3.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоVA-07 House Election Margin of Victory
VA-07 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 15-20% 27%
Democrat 25%+ 20%
Democrat 20-25% 14%
Democrat 10-15% 13%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 25%+
20%
Democrat 20-25%
14%
Democrat 15-20%
27%
Democrat 10-15%
13%
Democrat 5-10%
8%
Democrat 0-5%
7%
Republican 0-5%
6%
Republican 5%+
8%
Democrat 15-20% 27%
Democrat 25%+ 20%
Democrat 20-25% 14%
Democrat 10-15% 13%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 25%+
$600 Обс.
20%
Democrat 20-25%
$289 Обс.
14%
Democrat 15-20%
$783 Обс.
27%
Democrat 10-15%
$355 Обс.
13%
Democrat 5-10%
$175 Обс.
8%
Democrat 0-5%
$143 Обс.
7%
Republican 0-5%
$187 Обс.
6%
Republican 5%+
$268 Обс.
8%
The 2026 VA-07 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 VA-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Eugene Vindman holds a structural edge in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District through name recognition and fundraising after winning the seat in 2024, while Republican nominee Douglas Ollivant brings military experience and appeals to suburban and exurban voters across Prince William, Stafford, and Spotsylvania counties. The district’s partisan lean, shaped by recent redistricting and rated Likely Democratic by multiple forecasters, supports trader consensus around double-digit Democratic margins, yet its mix of Northern Virginia growth areas and more conservative central counties keeps the race within reach for Republicans if turnout or national conditions shift. Low combined probability on Republican victories reflects limited recent polling movement and the absence of major campaign-altering events since the August primaries, with general-election dynamics such as candidate endorsements, early voting patterns, and economic messaging still able to influence final vote shares before November 3.
The 2026 VA-07 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 VA-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 VA-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 11, 2026, 3:04 PM ET
Обсяг
$2,800Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 11, 2026, 3:04 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 VA-07 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 VA-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Eugene Vindman holds a structural edge in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District through name recognition and fundraising after winning the seat in 2024, while Republican nominee Douglas Ollivant brings military experience and appeals to suburban and exurban voters across Prince William, Stafford, and Spotsylvania counties. The district’s partisan lean, shaped by recent redistricting and rated Likely Democratic by multiple forecasters, supports trader consensus around double-digit Democratic margins, yet its mix of Northern Virginia growth areas and more conservative central counties keeps the race within reach for Republicans if turnout or national conditions shift. Low combined probability on Republican victories reflects limited recent polling movement and the absence of major campaign-altering events since the August primaries, with general-election dynamics such as candidate endorsements, early voting patterns, and economic messaging still able to influence final vote shares before November 3.
The 2026 VA-07 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 VA-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 VA-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$2,800Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 11, 2026, 3:04 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat Eugene Vindman holds a structural edge in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District through name recognition and fundraising after winning the seat in 2024, while Republican nominee Douglas Ollivant brings military experience and appeals to suburban and exurban voters across Prince William, Stafford, and Spotsylvania counties. The district’s partisan lean, shaped by recent redistricting and rated Likely Democratic by multiple forecasters, supports trader consensus around double-digit Democratic margins, yet its mix of Northern Virginia growth areas and more conservative central counties keeps the race within reach for Republicans if turnout or national conditions shift. Low combined probability on Republican victories reflects limited recent polling movement and the absence of major campaign-altering events since the August primaries, with general-election dynamics such as candidate endorsements, early voting patterns, and economic messaging still able to influence final vote shares before November 3.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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