A recent influx of cooler polar air via a frontal system is the main driver suppressing maximum temperatures in Buenos Aires on August 6, shifting trader consensus toward 13–15 °C. Official guidance from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global models indicate daytime highs near 15 °C under increasing cloud cover, northeasterly winds shifting southerly, and light precipitation chances that limit solar heating. This setup contrasts with the long-term August average high of roughly 17 °C, explaining why the market assigns over 80 % combined probability to the 13–15 °C band while assigning minimal weight to 16 °C or warmer. Updated model runs and SMN briefings expected in the next 24 hours will determine whether further cooling pushes probabilities toward 13 °C or allows modest recovery toward 15 °C.