Recent model consensus from agencies like the Met Office and ECMWF points to a high-pressure ridge over central Europe, delivering mostly sunny conditions and light northwesterly winds to Warsaw on August 12. These factors limit cloud cover and moisture advection, allowing surface heating from solar insolation to peak near 23–25 °C—values that align with the closely matched market-implied probabilities of 31.5 % for 23 °C and 35.5 % for 24 °C. Minor differences in forecast maxima hinge on exact boundary-layer mixing and any residual daytime cumulus, which could trim or boost the daily high by 1–2 °C. Historical August averages near 24 °C provide context, while the absence of fronts keeps resolution uncertainty low ahead of final observational data.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 12?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 12?
23°C 37%
24°C 36%
25°C 14%
22°C 11%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 12, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
3%
22°C
11%
23°C
37%
24°C
36%
25°C
14%
26°C
3%
27°C
3%
28°C or higher
1%
23°C 37%
24°C 36%
25°C 14%
22°C 11%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 12, 2026
18°C or below
$12 KL.
<1%
19°C
$12 KL.
<1%
20°C
$12 KL.
1%
21°C
$1 KL.
3%
22°C
$122 KL.
11%
23°C
$156 KL.
37%
24°C
$53 KL.
36%
25°C
$88 KL.
14%
26°C
$10 KL.
3%
27°C
$17 KL.
3%
28°C or higher
$12 KL.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies like the Met Office and ECMWF points to a high-pressure ridge over central Europe, delivering mostly sunny conditions and light northwesterly winds to Warsaw on August 12. These factors limit cloud cover and moisture advection, allowing surface heating from solar insolation to peak near 23–25 °C—values that align with the closely matched market-implied probabilities of 31.5 % for 23 °C and 35.5 % for 24 °C. Minor differences in forecast maxima hinge on exact boundary-layer mixing and any residual daytime cumulus, which could trim or boost the daily high by 1–2 °C. Historical August averages near 24 °C provide context, while the absence of fronts keeps resolution uncertainty low ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Khối lượng
$496Ngày kết thúc
Aug 12, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies like the Met Office and ECMWF points to a high-pressure ridge over central Europe, delivering mostly sunny conditions and light northwesterly winds to Warsaw on August 12. These factors limit cloud cover and moisture advection, allowing surface heating from solar insolation to peak near 23–25 °C—values that align with the closely matched market-implied probabilities of 31.5 % for 23 °C and 35.5 % for 24 °C. Minor differences in forecast maxima hinge on exact boundary-layer mixing and any residual daytime cumulus, which could trim or boost the daily high by 1–2 °C. Historical August averages near 24 °C provide context, while the absence of fronts keeps resolution uncertainty low ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$496Ngày kết thúc
Aug 12, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from agencies like the Met Office and ECMWF points to a high-pressure ridge over central Europe, delivering mostly sunny conditions and light northwesterly winds to Warsaw on August 12. These factors limit cloud cover and moisture advection, allowing surface heating from solar insolation to peak near 23–25 °C—values that align with the closely matched market-implied probabilities of 31.5 % for 23 °C and 35.5 % for 24 °C. Minor differences in forecast maxima hinge on exact boundary-layer mixing and any residual daytime cumulus, which could trim or boost the daily high by 1–2 °C. Historical August averages near 24 °C provide context, while the absence of fronts keeps resolution uncertainty low ahead of final observational data.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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