Trader sentiment on Polymarket tilts toward no GPT-5.5 release by April 30 at 38% implied probability, driven by OpenAI's recent rollout of GPT-5.3 Instant Mini on April 9—prioritizing iterative improvements over a major frontier model jump—without any official GPT-5.5 announcement despite March rumors of monthly cadence from Sam Altman and team posts. The 23.5% on April 16 reflects lingering optimism from GPT-5.4's March launch and historical patterns of mid-month drops, but fragmented odds across mid-to-late April dates underscore uncertainty around training completion for codenamed "Spud" and potential limited enterprise previews. Watch for developer conference teases or API updates as key catalysts before month-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於No release by April 30 38%
April 16 22%
April 23 13%
April 30 13%
最新
最新
2026-04-30
April 10
1%
April 11
7%
April 12
11%
April 13
11%
April 14
11%
April 15
10%
April 16
22%
April 17
11%
April 18
11%
April 19
10%
April 20
10%
April 21
10%
April 22
10%
April 23
13%
April 24
10%
April 25
11%
April 26
10%
April 27
10%
April 28
13%
April 29
12%
April 30
13%
No release by April 30
38%
No release by April 30 38%
April 16 22%
April 23 13%
April 30 13%
最新
最新
2026-04-30
April 10
$26 交易量
1%
April 11
$32 交易量
7%
April 12
$0 交易量
11%
April 13
$0 交易量
11%
April 14
$5 交易量
11%
April 15
$0 交易量
10%
April 16
$0 交易量
22%
April 17
$0 交易量
11%
April 18
$0 交易量
11%
April 19
$0 交易量
10%
April 20
$0 交易量
10%
April 21
$0 交易量
10%
April 22
$0 交易量
10%
April 23
$0 交易量
13%
April 24
$0 交易量
10%
April 25
$0 交易量
11%
April 26
$0 交易量
10%
April 27
$0 交易量
10%
April 28
$0 交易量
13%
April 29
$0 交易量
12%
April 30
$0 交易量
13%
No release by April 30
$109 交易量
38%
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader sentiment on Polymarket tilts toward no GPT-5.5 release by April 30 at 38% implied probability, driven by OpenAI's recent rollout of GPT-5.3 Instant Mini on April 9—prioritizing iterative improvements over a major frontier model jump—without any official GPT-5.5 announcement despite March rumors of monthly cadence from Sam Altman and team posts. The 23.5% on April 16 reflects lingering optimism from GPT-5.4's March launch and historical patterns of mid-month drops, but fragmented odds across mid-to-late April dates underscore uncertainty around training completion for codenamed "Spud" and potential limited enterprise previews. Watch for developer conference teases or API updates as key catalysts before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ET
交易量
$2,304結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader sentiment on Polymarket tilts toward no GPT-5.5 release by April 30 at 38% implied probability, driven by OpenAI's recent rollout of GPT-5.3 Instant Mini on April 9—prioritizing iterative improvements over a major frontier model jump—without any official GPT-5.5 announcement despite March rumors of monthly cadence from Sam Altman and team posts. The 23.5% on April 16 reflects lingering optimism from GPT-5.4's March launch and historical patterns of mid-month drops, but fragmented odds across mid-to-late April dates underscore uncertainty around training completion for codenamed "Spud" and potential limited enterprise previews. Watch for developer conference teases or API updates as key catalysts before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,304結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Polymarket tilts toward no GPT-5.5 release by April 30 at 38% implied probability, driven by OpenAI's recent rollout of GPT-5.3 Instant Mini on April 9—prioritizing iterative improvements over a major frontier model jump—without any official GPT-5.5 announcement despite March rumors of monthly cadence from Sam Altman and team posts. The 23.5% on April 16 reflects lingering optimism from GPT-5.4's March launch and historical patterns of mid-month drops, but fragmented odds across mid-to-late April dates underscore uncertainty around training completion for codenamed "Spud" and potential limited enterprise previews. Watch for developer conference teases or API updates as key catalysts before month-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions