Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 (thinking) at 46% implied probability to top the Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) on April 17, driven by its current lead at 1504 ELO—ahead of the base Claude Opus 4.6 (1496 ELO), Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1492 ELO), and xAI's Grok 4.20 beta1 (1491 ELO). Recent performance optimizations resolved user-reported quality dips in Opus 4.6, solidifying its edge in reasoning and agentic tasks amid fierce competition. Over the past week, xAI's Grok 4.20 launch and Anthropic's Mythos Preview (outscoring Opus 4.6 on internal benchmarks) have narrowed gaps, but no challenger has overtaken in blind Arena votes. With resolution just six days away, traders watch for last-minute model updates or vote surges from high-traffic evaluations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於claude-opus-4-6-thinking 46%
claude-opus-4-6 3.6%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview 2.8%
gpt-5.4-high 2.5%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
46%
claude-opus-4-6
4%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
3%
gpt-5.4-high
3%
grok-4.20-beta1
2%
claude-opus-4-5-20251101-thinking-32k
2%
gpt-5.2-chat-latest-20260210
2%
grok-4.20-beta-0309-reasoning
1%
gemini-3-pro
1%
dola-seed-2.0-preview
1%
qwen3.5-max-preview
1%
gemini-2.5-pro
1%
gemini-3-flash
1%
kimi-k2.5-thinking
1%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 46%
claude-opus-4-6 3.6%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview 2.8%
gpt-5.4-high 2.5%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
46%
claude-opus-4-6
4%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
3%
gpt-5.4-high
3%
grok-4.20-beta1
2%
claude-opus-4-5-20251101-thinking-32k
2%
gpt-5.2-chat-latest-20260210
2%
grok-4.20-beta-0309-reasoning
1%
gemini-3-pro
1%
dola-seed-2.0-preview
1%
qwen3.5-max-preview
1%
gemini-2.5-pro
1%
gemini-3-flash
1%
kimi-k2.5-thinking
1%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間: Apr 9, 2026, 5:20 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 (thinking) at 46% implied probability to top the Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) on April 17, driven by its current lead at 1504 ELO—ahead of the base Claude Opus 4.6 (1496 ELO), Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1492 ELO), and xAI's Grok 4.20 beta1 (1491 ELO). Recent performance optimizations resolved user-reported quality dips in Opus 4.6, solidifying its edge in reasoning and agentic tasks amid fierce competition. Over the past week, xAI's Grok 4.20 launch and Anthropic's Mythos Preview (outscoring Opus 4.6 on internal benchmarks) have narrowed gaps, but no challenger has overtaken in blind Arena votes. With resolution just six days away, traders watch for last-minute model updates or vote surges from high-traffic evaluations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions