Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Claude Opus 4.6 (thinking mode) at a 68.5% implied probability to claim the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 17 under style control off settings, driven by its recent ascent to #1 in head-to-head human preference battles. Anthropic's flagship large language model, released February 5, 2026, with a 1-million-token context window, continues dominating coding benchmarks and natural prose generation, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 (released March) and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro per latest evaluations. No major rival releases have emerged in early April, solidifying its lead, though low-single-digit odds on challengers like Grok 4.20 beta reflect potential for surprise updates before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於claude-opus-4-6-thinking 72%
claude-opus-4-6 4%
gemini-3-flash 2.4%
gpt-5.4-high 1.8%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
72%
claude-opus-4-6
4%
gemini-3-flash
2%
gpt-5.4-high
2%
grok-4.20-beta1
2%
gemini-3-pro
2%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
1%
gemini-2.5-pro
1%
dola-seed-2.0-preview
1%
kimi-k2.5-thinking
1%
qwen3.5-max-preview
1%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 72%
claude-opus-4-6 4%
gemini-3-flash 2.4%
gpt-5.4-high 1.8%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
72%
claude-opus-4-6
4%
gemini-3-flash
2%
gpt-5.4-high
2%
grok-4.20-beta1
2%
gemini-3-pro
2%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
1%
gemini-2.5-pro
1%
dola-seed-2.0-preview
1%
kimi-k2.5-thinking
1%
qwen3.5-max-preview
1%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間: Apr 9, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Claude Opus 4.6 (thinking mode) at a 68.5% implied probability to claim the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 17 under style control off settings, driven by its recent ascent to #1 in head-to-head human preference battles. Anthropic's flagship large language model, released February 5, 2026, with a 1-million-token context window, continues dominating coding benchmarks and natural prose generation, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 (released March) and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro per latest evaluations. No major rival releases have emerged in early April, solidifying its lead, though low-single-digit odds on challengers like Grok 4.20 beta reflect potential for surprise updates before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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