Recent model consensus from sources like ECMWF and GFS indicates a mild autumn day for Amsterdam on September 15, with daytime highs most likely peaking at 21–24°C under southwesterly flow, variable cloud cover, and limited precipitation risk. This positions 23°C as the leading market outcome at 39% implied probability, followed by 24°C (26.5%) and 22°C (18.5%), reflecting traders' aggregation of forecast spreads and typical model uncertainty ranges of ±1–2°C near 48-hour lead times. The slightly above-average temperatures relative to the 1991–2020 September high of 19.3°C stem from transient warm advection, though no extreme ridging or heatwave setup appears in current guidance. Updated model runs and KNMI briefings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten resolution criteria around observed maximums at official stations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月15日阿姆斯特丹的最高溫度？
9月15日阿姆斯特丹的最高溫度？
24°C 40%
23°C 38%
22°C 12%
25°C 11%
最新
最新
2026-09-15
19°C或以下
1%
20°C
3%
21°C
5%
22°C
12%
23°C
38%
24°C
40%
25°C
11%
26°C
4%
27°C
4%
28°C
2%
29°C或以上
1%
24°C 40%
23°C 38%
22°C 12%
25°C 11%
最新
最新
2026-09-15
19°C或以下
$52 交易量
1%
20°C
$237 交易量
3%
21°C
$55 交易量
5%
22°C
$45 交易量
12%
23°C
$13 交易量
38%
24°C
$154 交易量
40%
25°C
$338 交易量
11%
26°C
$33 交易量
4%
27°C
$10 交易量
4%
28°C
$10 交易量
2%
29°C或以上
$10 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like ECMWF and GFS indicates a mild autumn day for Amsterdam on September 15, with daytime highs most likely peaking at 21–24°C under southwesterly flow, variable cloud cover, and limited precipitation risk. This positions 23°C as the leading market outcome at 39% implied probability, followed by 24°C (26.5%) and 22°C (18.5%), reflecting traders' aggregation of forecast spreads and typical model uncertainty ranges of ±1–2°C near 48-hour lead times. The slightly above-average temperatures relative to the 1991–2020 September high of 19.3°C stem from transient warm advection, though no extreme ridging or heatwave setup appears in current guidance. Updated model runs and KNMI briefings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten resolution criteria around observed maximums at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ET
交易量
$957結束日期
2026-09-15市場開放時間
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like ECMWF and GFS indicates a mild autumn day for Amsterdam on September 15, with daytime highs most likely peaking at 21–24°C under southwesterly flow, variable cloud cover, and limited precipitation risk. This positions 23°C as the leading market outcome at 39% implied probability, followed by 24°C (26.5%) and 22°C (18.5%), reflecting traders' aggregation of forecast spreads and typical model uncertainty ranges of ±1–2°C near 48-hour lead times. The slightly above-average temperatures relative to the 1991–2020 September high of 19.3°C stem from transient warm advection, though no extreme ridging or heatwave setup appears in current guidance. Updated model runs and KNMI briefings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten resolution criteria around observed maximums at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$957結束日期
2026-09-15市場開放時間
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETRecent model consensus from sources like ECMWF and GFS indicates a mild autumn day for Amsterdam on September 15, with daytime highs most likely peaking at 21–24°C under southwesterly flow, variable cloud cover, and limited precipitation risk. This positions 23°C as the leading market outcome at 39% implied probability, followed by 24°C (26.5%) and 22°C (18.5%), reflecting traders' aggregation of forecast spreads and typical model uncertainty ranges of ±1–2°C near 48-hour lead times. The slightly above-average temperatures relative to the 1991–2020 September high of 19.3°C stem from transient warm advection, though no extreme ridging or heatwave setup appears in current guidance. Updated model runs and KNMI briefings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten resolution criteria around observed maximums at official stations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions