Forecast models from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather currently converge on a high near 100–102°F for Austin on August 15, positioning the 100–101°F bin as the market leader with 48% implied probability. Persistent upper-level ridging and dry southwesterly flow favor continued heat without significant cloud cover or moisture to moderate temperatures, consistent with climatological August peaks in the upper 90s to low 100s. Recent guidance shows little model spread, though minor timing shifts in any weak frontal boundary could nudge readings into the 102–103°F range (22.5%). Traders are weighting these short-term dynamical forecasts heavily ahead of tomorrow’s official observation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月15日奧斯汀的最高溫度？
8月15日奧斯汀的最高溫度？
100-101°F 48%
102-103°F 23%
98-99°F 18%
104-105°F 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-15
華氏91度或以下
<1%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
2%
96-97°F
4%
98-99°F
18%
100-101°F
48%
102-103°F
23%
104-105°F
6%
106-107°F
2%
108-109°F
<1%
110°F或更高
<1%
100-101°F 48%
102-103°F 23%
98-99°F 18%
104-105°F 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-15
華氏91度或以下
$28 交易量
<1%
92-93°F
$28 交易量
1%
94-95°F
$113 交易量
2%
96-97°F
$388 交易量
4%
98-99°F
$328 交易量
18%
100-101°F
$334 交易量
48%
102-103°F
$15 交易量
23%
104-105°F
$82 交易量
6%
106-107°F
$54 交易量
2%
108-109°F
$156 交易量
<1%
110°F或更高
$325 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather currently converge on a high near 100–102°F for Austin on August 15, positioning the 100–101°F bin as the market leader with 48% implied probability. Persistent upper-level ridging and dry southwesterly flow favor continued heat without significant cloud cover or moisture to moderate temperatures, consistent with climatological August peaks in the upper 90s to low 100s. Recent guidance shows little model spread, though minor timing shifts in any weak frontal boundary could nudge readings into the 102–103°F range (22.5%). Traders are weighting these short-term dynamical forecasts heavily ahead of tomorrow’s official observation.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
交易量
$1,850結束日期
2026-08-15市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather currently converge on a high near 100–102°F for Austin on August 15, positioning the 100–101°F bin as the market leader with 48% implied probability. Persistent upper-level ridging and dry southwesterly flow favor continued heat without significant cloud cover or moisture to moderate temperatures, consistent with climatological August peaks in the upper 90s to low 100s. Recent guidance shows little model spread, though minor timing shifts in any weak frontal boundary could nudge readings into the 102–103°F range (22.5%). Traders are weighting these short-term dynamical forecasts heavily ahead of tomorrow’s official observation.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,850結束日期
2026-08-15市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETForecast models from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather currently converge on a high near 100–102°F for Austin on August 15, positioning the 100–101°F bin as the market leader with 48% implied probability. Persistent upper-level ridging and dry southwesterly flow favor continued heat without significant cloud cover or moisture to moderate temperatures, consistent with climatological August peaks in the upper 90s to low 100s. Recent guidance shows little model spread, though minor timing shifts in any weak frontal boundary could nudge readings into the 102–103°F range (22.5%). Traders are weighting these short-term dynamical forecasts heavily ahead of tomorrow’s official observation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions