Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 25°C high temperature in Beijing on April 27, driven by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observations at Beijing Capital International Airport—the official resolution source—confirming a midday peak of exactly 25°C under hazy sunshine, light northerly winds (16-24 km/h), and a subsiding high-pressure ridge fostering efficient boundary-layer heating from overnight lows near 9°C. This aligns with updated ECMWF and GFS model runs, building on yesterday's 24°C actual high amid spring warming trends exceeding late-April climatological averages of 22°C. With the sun setting and temperatures declining, realistic challenges are minimal but could involve post-peak measurement revisions from CMA's final hourly bulletins or rare urban heat island effects pushing marginally higher, though low probability persists ahead of midnight UTC airport data lock.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Beijing on April 27?
25°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$214,203 交易量
$214,203 交易量
17°C or below
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$214,203 交易量
$214,203 交易量
17°C or below
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 25, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 25°C high temperature in Beijing on April 27, driven by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observations at Beijing Capital International Airport—the official resolution source—confirming a midday peak of exactly 25°C under hazy sunshine, light northerly winds (16-24 km/h), and a subsiding high-pressure ridge fostering efficient boundary-layer heating from overnight lows near 9°C. This aligns with updated ECMWF and GFS model runs, building on yesterday's 24°C actual high amid spring warming trends exceeding late-April climatological averages of 22°C. With the sun setting and temperatures declining, realistic challenges are minimal but could involve post-peak measurement revisions from CMA's final hourly bulletins or rare urban heat island effects pushing marginally higher, though low probability persists ahead of midnight UTC airport data lock.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions