Latest NOAA ensemble forecasts and GFS model runs point to a high-pressure ridge over Texas driving Dallas's peak temperature on March 26 into the upper 80s, fueling trader consensus around 88-89°F (27.5% implied probability) as the frontrunner. Differentiating factors include subtle variations in model depictions of southerly low-level winds advecting Gulf moisture—stronger flow favors 90-91°F (20.5%), while slight ridging erosion or afternoon clouds nudge toward 86-87°F (21.0%)—against a backdrop of low precipitation odds (<10%). Historical March norms (~72°F) underscore the anomalous warmth from persistent blocking patterns, but 1-2°F model spread keeps leading bins tightly matched amid evening forecast updates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於3月26日達拉斯的最高溫度?
3月26日達拉斯的最高溫度?
88-89°F 27%
86-87°F 24%
90-91°F 21%
84-85°F 12%
華氏79度或以下
1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
6%
84-85°F
12%
86-87°F
24%
88-89°F
27%
90-91°F
21%
92-93°F
10%
94-95°F
2%
96-97°F
1%
98°F或更高
1%
88-89°F 27%
86-87°F 24%
90-91°F 21%
84-85°F 12%
華氏79度或以下
1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
6%
84-85°F
12%
86-87°F
24%
88-89°F
27%
90-91°F
21%
92-93°F
10%
94-95°F
2%
96-97°F
1%
98°F或更高
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest NOAA ensemble forecasts and GFS model runs point to a high-pressure ridge over Texas driving Dallas's peak temperature on March 26 into the upper 80s, fueling trader consensus around 88-89°F (27.5% implied probability) as the frontrunner. Differentiating factors include subtle variations in model depictions of southerly low-level winds advecting Gulf moisture—stronger flow favors 90-91°F (20.5%), while slight ridging erosion or afternoon clouds nudge toward 86-87°F (21.0%)—against a backdrop of low precipitation odds (<10%). Historical March norms (~72°F) underscore the anomalous warmth from persistent blocking patterns, but 1-2°F model spread keeps leading bins tightly matched amid evening forecast updates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions