Recent ensemble forecast models from regional meteorological agencies have converged on a daytime maximum of 34°C in Guangzhou, driving the market's near-certain implied probability for that outcome under typical subtropical August conditions influenced by the East Asian monsoon. This aligns with climatological baselines showing average highs of 32–33°C and minimal deviations in updated model runs, where atmospheric stability and limited convective activity support peak readings in the mid-30s. Official observational networks and high-resolution guidance reinforce this positioning, with traders weighting real-time data heavily. Scenarios that could realistically challenge it include unexpected increases in cloud cover or localized precipitation that suppress temperatures below the threshold.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月21日廣州最高溫度？
8月21日廣州最高溫度？
34°C 100.0%
27°C或以下 <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$76,522 交易量
$76,522 交易量
2026-08-21
27°C或以下
否
28°C
否
29°C
否
30°C
否
31°C
否
32°C
否
33°C
否
34°C
是
35°C
否
36°C
否
37°C或以上
否
34°C 100.0%
27°C或以下 <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$76,522 交易量
$76,522 交易量
2026-08-21
27°C或以下
$995 交易量
否
28°C
$387 交易量
否
29°C
$2,985 交易量
否
30°C
$6,683 交易量
否
31°C
$8,735 交易量
否
32°C
$7,826 交易量
否
33°C
$8,570 交易量
否
34°C
$7,116 交易量
是
35°C
$8,699 交易量
否
36°C
$13,233 交易量
否
37°C或以上
$11,292 交易量
否
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecast models from regional meteorological agencies have converged on a daytime maximum of 34°C in Guangzhou, driving the market's near-certain implied probability for that outcome under typical subtropical August conditions influenced by the East Asian monsoon. This aligns with climatological baselines showing average highs of 32–33°C and minimal deviations in updated model runs, where atmospheric stability and limited convective activity support peak readings in the mid-30s. Official observational networks and high-resolution guidance reinforce this positioning, with traders weighting real-time data heavily. Scenarios that could realistically challenge it include unexpected increases in cloud cover or localized precipitation that suppress temperatures below the threshold.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$76,522結束日期
2026-08-21市場開放時間
Aug 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecast models from regional meteorological agencies have converged on a daytime maximum of 34°C in Guangzhou, driving the market's near-certain implied probability for that outcome under typical subtropical August conditions influenced by the East Asian monsoon. This aligns with climatological baselines showing average highs of 32–33°C and minimal deviations in updated model runs, where atmospheric stability and limited convective activity support peak readings in the mid-30s. Official observational networks and high-resolution guidance reinforce this positioning, with traders weighting real-time data heavily. Scenarios that could realistically challenge it include unexpected increases in cloud cover or localized precipitation that suppress temperatures below the threshold.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$76,522結束日期
2026-08-21市場開放時間
Aug 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Recent ensemble forecast models from regional meteorological agencies have converged on a daytime maximum of 34°C in Guangzhou, driving the market's near-certain implied probability for that outcome under typical subtropical August conditions influenced by the East Asian monsoon. This aligns with climatological baselines showing average highs of 32–33°C and minimal deviations in updated model runs, where atmospheric stability and limited convective activity support peak readings in the mid-30s. Official observational networks and high-resolution guidance reinforce this positioning, with traders weighting real-time data heavily. Scenarios that could realistically challenge it include unexpected increases in cloud cover or localized precipitation that suppress temperatures below the threshold.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions