Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 28°C (33.5% implied probability) and 29°C (32.0%), driven by Spain's AEMET official guidance forecasting a 28°C maximum at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport—the market's resolution source—amid a dominant high-pressure ridge bringing clear skies and light southerly winds. Ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS models differentiate the outcomes: stronger subsidence and full insolation could push peaks to 29°C via enhanced diel heating, while isolated afternoon cumulus clouds or slight northern shear might limit to 27-28°C. Recent post-storm warming after early April's Storm Kristin has elevated baseline expectations above Madrid's typical April average of 19°C. Watch AEMET's daily updates and ECMWF 12z runs for refinement ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Madrid on April 18?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 18?
28°C 36%
29°C 27%
27°C 21%
30°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-04-18
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
10%
27°C
21%
28°C
36%
29°C
27%
30°C
13%
31°C
4%
32°C or higher
2%
28°C 36%
29°C 27%
27°C 21%
30°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-04-18
22°C or below
$190 交易量
<1%
23°C
$139 交易量
1%
24°C
$418 交易量
1%
25°C
$95 交易量
2%
26°C
$14 交易量
10%
27°C
$47 交易量
21%
28°C
$75 交易量
36%
29°C
$17 交易量
27%
30°C
$229 交易量
13%
31°C
$85 交易量
4%
32°C or higher
$465 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 28°C (33.5% implied probability) and 29°C (32.0%), driven by Spain's AEMET official guidance forecasting a 28°C maximum at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport—the market's resolution source—amid a dominant high-pressure ridge bringing clear skies and light southerly winds. Ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS models differentiate the outcomes: stronger subsidence and full insolation could push peaks to 29°C via enhanced diel heating, while isolated afternoon cumulus clouds or slight northern shear might limit to 27-28°C. Recent post-storm warming after early April's Storm Kristin has elevated baseline expectations above Madrid's typical April average of 19°C. Watch AEMET's daily updates and ECMWF 12z runs for refinement ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Apr 16, 2026, 1:16 AM ET
交易量
$1,616結束日期
2026-04-18市場開放時間
Apr 16, 2026, 1:16 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 28°C (33.5% implied probability) and 29°C (32.0%), driven by Spain's AEMET official guidance forecasting a 28°C maximum at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport—the market's resolution source—amid a dominant high-pressure ridge bringing clear skies and light southerly winds. Ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS models differentiate the outcomes: stronger subsidence and full insolation could push peaks to 29°C via enhanced diel heating, while isolated afternoon cumulus clouds or slight northern shear might limit to 27-28°C. Recent post-storm warming after early April's Storm Kristin has elevated baseline expectations above Madrid's typical April average of 19°C. Watch AEMET's daily updates and ECMWF 12z runs for refinement ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$1,616結束日期
2026-04-18市場開放時間
Apr 16, 2026, 1:16 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 28°C (33.5% implied probability) and 29°C (32.0%), driven by Spain's AEMET official guidance forecasting a 28°C maximum at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport—the market's resolution source—amid a dominant high-pressure ridge bringing clear skies and light southerly winds. Ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS models differentiate the outcomes: stronger subsidence and full insolation could push peaks to 29°C via enhanced diel heating, while isolated afternoon cumulus clouds or slight northern shear might limit to 27-28°C. Recent post-storm warming after early April's Storm Kristin has elevated baseline expectations above Madrid's typical April average of 19°C. Watch AEMET's daily updates and ECMWF 12z runs for refinement ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions