Current ensemble forecasts from European and UK models point to a maximum of 32–34°C in Paris on August 15, driven by a warm air mass with light northwesterly flow, increasing afternoon cloud cover, and scattered thunderstorm risk that limits peak heating. These conditions follow hotter days earlier in the week and align with typical mid-August variability above the 24–29°C climatological range. Meteo France and Met Office guidance emphasize modest uncertainty from convective development, supporting the market’s clustering at 33°C (43.5%) and 34°C (29.5%) as the leading implied outcomes while keeping lower or higher extremes at minimal probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月15日巴黎最高溫度？
8月15日巴黎最高溫度？
33°C 44%
34°C 30%
32°C 13%
35°C 12%
最新
$11,346 交易量
最新
$11,346 交易量
2026-08-15
30°C or below
1%
31°C
6%
32°C
13%
33°C
44%
34°C
30%
35°C
12%
36°C
1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
33°C 44%
34°C 30%
32°C 13%
35°C 12%
最新
$11,346 交易量
最新
$11,346 交易量
2026-08-15
30°C or below
$694 交易量
1%
31°C
$1,671 交易量
6%
32°C
$2,521 交易量
13%
33°C
$2,260 交易量
44%
34°C
$1,224 交易量
30%
35°C
$587 交易量
12%
36°C
$663 交易量
1%
37°C
$444 交易量
<1%
38°C
$358 交易量
<1%
39°C
$457 交易量
<1%
40°C or higher
$467 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from European and UK models point to a maximum of 32–34°C in Paris on August 15, driven by a warm air mass with light northwesterly flow, increasing afternoon cloud cover, and scattered thunderstorm risk that limits peak heating. These conditions follow hotter days earlier in the week and align with typical mid-August variability above the 24–29°C climatological range. Meteo France and Met Office guidance emphasize modest uncertainty from convective development, supporting the market’s clustering at 33°C (43.5%) and 34°C (29.5%) as the leading implied outcomes while keeping lower or higher extremes at minimal probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 13, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
交易量
$11,346結束日期
2026-08-15市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 12:55 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from European and UK models point to a maximum of 32–34°C in Paris on August 15, driven by a warm air mass with light northwesterly flow, increasing afternoon cloud cover, and scattered thunderstorm risk that limits peak heating. These conditions follow hotter days earlier in the week and align with typical mid-August variability above the 24–29°C climatological range. Meteo France and Met Office guidance emphasize modest uncertainty from convective development, supporting the market’s clustering at 33°C (43.5%) and 34°C (29.5%) as the leading implied outcomes while keeping lower or higher extremes at minimal probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$11,346結束日期
2026-08-15市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 12:55 AM ETCurrent ensemble forecasts from European and UK models point to a maximum of 32–34°C in Paris on August 15, driven by a warm air mass with light northwesterly flow, increasing afternoon cloud cover, and scattered thunderstorm risk that limits peak heating. These conditions follow hotter days earlier in the week and align with typical mid-August variability above the 24–29°C climatological range. Meteo France and Met Office guidance emphasize modest uncertainty from convective development, supporting the market’s clustering at 33°C (43.5%) and 34°C (29.5%) as the leading implied outcomes while keeping lower or higher extremes at minimal probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions