**Forecast consensus from multiple models positions Madrid’s September 17 high temperature in the 25–28 °C range, aligning with the market’s heaviest trading on 26 °C, 27 °C, and 25 °C outcomes.** Current guidance from sources such as globalmeteo, WeatherBug, and yr.no shows a high near 26–27 °C (79–80 °F) under partly cloudy skies and northeasterly winds of 8–14 mph, following a sharp cooldown from today’s 35–36 °C peak. The primary driver is a synoptic shift: strengthening northeast flow advects cooler, drier air from higher latitudes while increased cloud cover limits daytime insolation. This pattern follows the typical late-September decline from peak summer warmth, consistent with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 26.2 °C. No significant model spread or precipitation is indicated, keeping probabilities tightly clustered around the observed forecast values. Updated model runs or satellite observations over the next 24–48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts for any adjustment in implied odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月17日馬德裏氣溫最高？
9月17日馬德裏氣溫最高？
27°C 38%
26°C 31%
25°C 20%
28°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-09-17
21°C或以下
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
20%
26°C
31%
27°C
38%
28°C
13%
29°C
6%
30°C
3%
31°C或以上
<1%
27°C 38%
26°C 31%
25°C 20%
28°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-09-17
21°C或以下
$241 交易量
<1%
22°C
$137 交易量
<1%
23°C
$83 交易量
1%
24°C
$47 交易量
2%
25°C
$397 交易量
20%
26°C
$254 交易量
31%
27°C
$555 交易量
38%
28°C
$61 交易量
13%
29°C
$0 交易量
6%
30°C
$0 交易量
3%
31°C或以上
$20 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from multiple models positions Madrid’s September 17 high temperature in the 25–28 °C range, aligning with the market’s heaviest trading on 26 °C, 27 °C, and 25 °C outcomes.** Current guidance from sources such as globalmeteo, WeatherBug, and yr.no shows a high near 26–27 °C (79–80 °F) under partly cloudy skies and northeasterly winds of 8–14 mph, following a sharp cooldown from today’s 35–36 °C peak.
The primary driver is a synoptic shift: strengthening northeast flow advects cooler, drier air from higher latitudes while increased cloud cover limits daytime insolation. This pattern follows the typical late-September decline from peak summer warmth, consistent with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 26.2 °C. No significant model spread or precipitation is indicated, keeping probabilities tightly clustered around the observed forecast values. Updated model runs or satellite observations over the next 24–48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts for any adjustment in implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$1,796結束日期
2026-09-17市場開放時間
Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from multiple models positions Madrid’s September 17 high temperature in the 25–28 °C range, aligning with the market’s heaviest trading on 26 °C, 27 °C, and 25 °C outcomes.** Current guidance from sources such as globalmeteo, WeatherBug, and yr.no shows a high near 26–27 °C (79–80 °F) under partly cloudy skies and northeasterly winds of 8–14 mph, following a sharp cooldown from today’s 35–36 °C peak.
The primary driver is a synoptic shift: strengthening northeast flow advects cooler, drier air from higher latitudes while increased cloud cover limits daytime insolation. This pattern follows the typical late-September decline from peak summer warmth, consistent with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 26.2 °C. No significant model spread or precipitation is indicated, keeping probabilities tightly clustered around the observed forecast values. Updated model runs or satellite observations over the next 24–48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts for any adjustment in implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,796結束日期
2026-09-17市場開放時間
Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ET**Forecast consensus from multiple models positions Madrid’s September 17 high temperature in the 25–28 °C range, aligning with the market’s heaviest trading on 26 °C, 27 °C, and 25 °C outcomes.** Current guidance from sources such as globalmeteo, WeatherBug, and yr.no shows a high near 26–27 °C (79–80 °F) under partly cloudy skies and northeasterly winds of 8–14 mph, following a sharp cooldown from today’s 35–36 °C peak. The primary driver is a synoptic shift: strengthening northeast flow advects cooler, drier air from higher latitudes while increased cloud cover limits daytime insolation. This pattern follows the typical late-September decline from peak summer warmth, consistent with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 26.2 °C. No significant model spread or precipitation is indicated, keeping probabilities tightly clustered around the observed forecast values. Updated model runs or satellite observations over the next 24–48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts for any adjustment in implied odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions