Latest National Weather Service guidance and consensus from GFS and ECMWF ensemble models project New York City's high temperature at LaGuardia Airport on April 5 around 63-67°F, driving the 66.5% market-implied probability for "67°F or below" as traders weigh mild but capped warming under a post-frontal upper-level pattern with lingering onshore flow and cloud cover. Recent cooler anomalies in early April, including backdoor cold fronts pushing highs into the 40s-50s on April 2, reinforce this positioning against seasonal normals of mid-50s°F. While some ensemble members hint at 68-69°F if skies clear, inherent short-range forecast uncertainty persists; monitor overnight model runs and tomorrow's NWS updates for potential shifts ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in NYC on April 5?
Highest temperature in NYC on April 5?
67°F or below 67%
68-69°F 19%
70-71°F 8%
72-73°F 4.5%
$14,973 交易量
$14,973 交易量
67°F or below
67%
68-69°F
19%
70-71°F
8%
72-73°F
5%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86°F or higher
<1%
67°F or below 67%
68-69°F 19%
70-71°F 8%
72-73°F 4.5%
$14,973 交易量
$14,973 交易量
67°F or below
67%
68-69°F
19%
70-71°F
8%
72-73°F
5%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Latest National Weather Service guidance and consensus from GFS and ECMWF ensemble models project New York City's high temperature at LaGuardia Airport on April 5 around 63-67°F, driving the 66.5% market-implied probability for "67°F or below" as traders weigh mild but capped warming under a post-frontal upper-level pattern with lingering onshore flow and cloud cover. Recent cooler anomalies in early April, including backdoor cold fronts pushing highs into the 40s-50s on April 2, reinforce this positioning against seasonal normals of mid-50s°F. While some ensemble members hint at 68-69°F if skies clear, inherent short-range forecast uncertainty persists; monitor overnight model runs and tomorrow's NWS updates for potential shifts ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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