Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98.5% implied probability to a highest temperature of 52-53°F at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (KSEA) on April 2, 2026, backed by official observations from Weather Underground and National Weather Service data confirming a peak of 53°F around mid-afternoon amid persistent overcast skies and cool southwest winds. This positioning reflects verified hourly measurements showing temperatures stabilizing in the low 50s°F under a marine-influenced air mass typical for early April, well below the 57°F climatological normal. Recent GFS and ECMWF model runs had converged on this range pre-event, with no significant deviations observed. Realistic challenges would require rare post hoc data revisions by NOAA, such as sensor recalibrations, though NWS climate summaries—expected today—solidify this outcome given the skin-in-the-game trader alignment with real-time meteorological records.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於4月2日西雅圖的最高溫度?
4月2日西雅圖的最高溫度?
52-53華氏度 99.0%
54-55°F <1%
56-57°F <1%
58°F或更高 <1%
$143,218 交易量
$143,218 交易量
50-51°F
<1%
52-53華氏度
99%
54-55°F
1%
56-57°F
<1%
58°F或更高
<1%
52-53華氏度 99.0%
54-55°F <1%
56-57°F <1%
58°F或更高 <1%
$143,218 交易量
$143,218 交易量
50-51°F
<1%
52-53華氏度
99%
54-55°F
1%
56-57°F
<1%
58°F或更高
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 29, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
已提議結果: 否
爭議期
最終
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
已提議結果: 否
爭議期
最終
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98.5% implied probability to a highest temperature of 52-53°F at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (KSEA) on April 2, 2026, backed by official observations from Weather Underground and National Weather Service data confirming a peak of 53°F around mid-afternoon amid persistent overcast skies and cool southwest winds. This positioning reflects verified hourly measurements showing temperatures stabilizing in the low 50s°F under a marine-influenced air mass typical for early April, well below the 57°F climatological normal. Recent GFS and ECMWF model runs had converged on this range pre-event, with no significant deviations observed. Realistic challenges would require rare post hoc data revisions by NOAA, such as sensor recalibrations, though NWS climate summaries—expected today—solidify this outcome given the skin-in-the-game trader alignment with real-time meteorological records.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions