Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service guidance and model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF, which cluster Seattle's April 5 high temperature around 62-65°F amid a weak upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and partial clearing of the persistent marine stratus layer typical of early spring. This setup differentiates the leading outcomes from cooler bins, as above-normal temperatures—climatological April 5 highs average 58°F—infer a 5-7°F warm bias from transitional ENSO-neutral conditions and increasing solar insolation. Key variables include morning cloud burn-off timing and light southerly winds; new 12Z model runs expected within 24 hours could shift the balance by 2-3°F. Resolution hinges on Sea-Tac Airport observations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Seattle on April 5?
Highest temperature in Seattle on April 5?
64-65°F 33%
62-63°F 27%
66-67°F 27%
60-61°F 17%
55°F or below
1%
56-57°F
3%
58-59°F
4%
60-61°F
15%
62-63°F
27%
64-65°F
33%
66-67°F
27%
68-69°F
4%
70-71°F
2%
72-73°F
<1%
74°F or higher
1%
64-65°F 33%
62-63°F 27%
66-67°F 27%
60-61°F 17%
55°F or below
1%
56-57°F
3%
58-59°F
4%
60-61°F
15%
62-63°F
27%
64-65°F
33%
66-67°F
27%
68-69°F
4%
70-71°F
2%
72-73°F
<1%
74°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service guidance and model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF, which cluster Seattle's April 5 high temperature around 62-65°F amid a weak upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and partial clearing of the persistent marine stratus layer typical of early spring. This setup differentiates the leading outcomes from cooler bins, as above-normal temperatures—climatological April 5 highs average 58°F—infer a 5-7°F warm bias from transitional ENSO-neutral conditions and increasing solar insolation. Key variables include morning cloud burn-off timing and light southerly winds; new 12Z model runs expected within 24 hours could shift the balance by 2-3°F. Resolution hinges on Sea-Tac Airport observations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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