Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 25°C at Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport—the NOAA resolution station—with 94.5% implied probability, driven by Central Weather Administration observations of scattered morning showers and persistent cloud cover suppressing daytime heating in northern Taiwan. Real-time METAR reports from RCTP show midday surface temperatures around 24°C under broken clouds and light precipitation, aligning with forecast models indicating limited insolation and highs capped near 25°C amid a passing frontal system. Historical April baselines for Taoyuan average 25–26°C, but today's cooler start and 30% shower risk reinforce this positioning. A challenge would require prolonged clearing and strong solar forcing to push toward 26°C or higher before evening; otherwise, resolution nears with minimal volatility expected.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Taipei on April 3?
Highest temperature in Taipei on April 3?
25°C 95%
27°C 4.5%
26°C 3.5%
28°C 1.0%
$63,115 交易量
$63,115 交易量
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
95%
26°C
4%
27°C
4%
28°C
1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
25°C 95%
27°C 4.5%
26°C 3.5%
28°C 1.0%
$63,115 交易量
$63,115 交易量
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
95%
26°C
4%
27°C
4%
28°C
1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 25°C at Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport—the NOAA resolution station—with 94.5% implied probability, driven by Central Weather Administration observations of scattered morning showers and persistent cloud cover suppressing daytime heating in northern Taiwan. Real-time METAR reports from RCTP show midday surface temperatures around 24°C under broken clouds and light precipitation, aligning with forecast models indicating limited insolation and highs capped near 25°C amid a passing frontal system. Historical April baselines for Taoyuan average 25–26°C, but today's cooler start and 30% shower risk reinforce this positioning. A challenge would require prolonged clearing and strong solar forcing to push toward 26°C or higher before evening; otherwise, resolution nears with minimal volatility expected.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions