Recent numerical weather prediction models, including outputs aligned with ECMWF and GFS ensembles, position a high near 22–24°C as the most probable outcome for Warsaw on August 11 under typical late-summer conditions with moderate Atlantic air influence, partly cloudy skies, and limited diurnal heating. This aligns with market-implied odds favoring 22°C (45.5%) and 23°C (30.5%), reflecting ensemble consensus on surface temperatures without strong high-pressure blocking or cold advection. Recent updates show stable guidance with minor spread around 21–25°C, driven by expected light winds and modest moisture reducing peak values below seasonal averages of 24–26°C. Upcoming model runs tonight and tomorrow morning will refine resolution criteria ahead of market close.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月11日華沙的最高溫度?
22°C 44%
23°C 31%
21°C 11%
24°C 11%
18°C or below
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
3%
21°C
11%
22°C
44%
23°C
31%
24°C
11%
25°C
2%
26°C
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
22°C 44%
23°C 31%
21°C 11%
24°C 11%
18°C or below
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
3%
21°C
11%
22°C
44%
23°C
31%
24°C
11%
25°C
2%
26°C
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間: Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent numerical weather prediction models, including outputs aligned with ECMWF and GFS ensembles, position a high near 22–24°C as the most probable outcome for Warsaw on August 11 under typical late-summer conditions with moderate Atlantic air influence, partly cloudy skies, and limited diurnal heating. This aligns with market-implied odds favoring 22°C (45.5%) and 23°C (30.5%), reflecting ensemble consensus on surface temperatures without strong high-pressure blocking or cold advection. Recent updates show stable guidance with minor spread around 21–25°C, driven by expected light winds and modest moisture reducing peak values below seasonal averages of 24–26°C. Upcoming model runs tonight and tomorrow morning will refine resolution criteria ahead of market close.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於


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