Russ Fulcher's commanding position in Idaho's 1st congressional district stems from his incumbency in a solidly Republican area covering the Panhandle and western Boise suburbs, where he secured 78% in the May 2026 Republican primary and holds consistent polling leads of 45-48% against Democrat Kaylee Peterson. Strong fundraising, prior reelection margins exceeding 40 points, and the district's partisan baseline reinforce trader consensus around his 95% implied probability. Peterson has focused recent efforts on public events and debate invitations highlighting issues like public lands and healthcare, while an independent candidate adds a minor variable. Late developments such as national political shifts, candidate health events, major scandals, or unusually high third-party turnout could still narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$48,209 交易量
$48,209 交易量
2026-11-02
拉斯·富爾查（共和黨）
95%
Kaylee Peterson（民主黨）
4%
$48,209 交易量
$48,209 交易量
2026-11-02
拉斯·富爾查（共和黨）
$32,566 交易量
95%
Kaylee Peterson（民主黨）
$15,643 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Russ Fulcher's commanding position in Idaho's 1st congressional district stems from his incumbency in a solidly Republican area covering the Panhandle and western Boise suburbs, where he secured 78% in the May 2026 Republican primary and holds consistent polling leads of 45-48% against Democrat Kaylee Peterson. Strong fundraising, prior reelection margins exceeding 40 points, and the district's partisan baseline reinforce trader consensus around his 95% implied probability. Peterson has focused recent efforts on public events and debate invitations highlighting issues like public lands and healthcare, while an independent candidate adds a minor variable. Late developments such as national political shifts, candidate health events, major scandals, or unusually high third-party turnout could still narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
交易量
$48,209結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Russ Fulcher's commanding position in Idaho's 1st congressional district stems from his incumbency in a solidly Republican area covering the Panhandle and western Boise suburbs, where he secured 78% in the May 2026 Republican primary and holds consistent polling leads of 45-48% against Democrat Kaylee Peterson. Strong fundraising, prior reelection margins exceeding 40 points, and the district's partisan baseline reinforce trader consensus around his 95% implied probability. Peterson has focused recent efforts on public events and debate invitations highlighting issues like public lands and healthcare, while an independent candidate adds a minor variable. Late developments such as national political shifts, candidate health events, major scandals, or unusually high third-party turnout could still narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$48,209結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETRuss Fulcher's commanding position in Idaho's 1st congressional district stems from his incumbency in a solidly Republican area covering the Panhandle and western Boise suburbs, where he secured 78% in the May 2026 Republican primary and holds consistent polling leads of 45-48% against Democrat Kaylee Peterson. Strong fundraising, prior reelection margins exceeding 40 points, and the district's partisan baseline reinforce trader consensus around his 95% implied probability. Peterson has focused recent efforts on public events and debate invitations highlighting issues like public lands and healthcare, while an independent candidate adds a minor variable. Late developments such as national political shifts, candidate health events, major scandals, or unusually high third-party turnout could still narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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