**Ongoing regional tensions in Lebanon, driven by the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and broader US-Iran dynamics, have kept the US Embassy in Beirut on ordered departure status for non-essential personnel since February 2026, with core staff remaining operational.** The State Department maintains a Level 4 “Do Not Travel” advisory citing risks of armed conflict, terrorism, and unrest, while issuing periodic security alerts urging Americans to prepare for potential escalation or departure. Recent diplomatic activity includes US-brokered talks between Israel and Lebanon, with ambassadors scheduled to meet in Washington and the next round set for Rome in October 2026 focused on a security framework, Hezbollah disarmament, and phased Israeli withdrawals. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has publicly emphasized a non-confrontational approach to disarming Hezbollah and potential new international forces in the south. These developments sustain trader views that a full embassy evacuation remains unlikely absent a major new military or diplomatic trigger.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$119,425 交易量
2026-12-31
12月31日
7%
$119,425 交易量
12月31日
$25,323 交易量
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. **Ongoing regional tensions in Lebanon, driven by the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and broader US-Iran dynamics, have kept the US Embassy in Beirut on ordered departure status for non-essential personnel since February 2026, with core staff remaining operational.**
The State Department maintains a Level 4 “Do Not Travel” advisory citing risks of armed conflict, terrorism, and unrest, while issuing periodic security alerts urging Americans to prepare for potential escalation or departure. Recent diplomatic activity includes US-brokered talks between Israel and Lebanon, with ambassadors scheduled to meet in Washington and the next round set for Rome in October 2026 focused on a security framework, Hezbollah disarmament, and phased Israeli withdrawals. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has publicly emphasized a non-confrontational approach to disarming Hezbollah and potential new international forces in the south. These developments sustain trader views that a full embassy evacuation remains unlikely absent a major new military or diplomatic trigger.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
市場開放時間： Jun 30, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
交易量
$119,425結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jun 30, 2026, 5:10 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. **Ongoing regional tensions in Lebanon, driven by the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and broader US-Iran dynamics, have kept the US Embassy in Beirut on ordered departure status for non-essential personnel since February 2026, with core staff remaining operational.**
The State Department maintains a Level 4 “Do Not Travel” advisory citing risks of armed conflict, terrorism, and unrest, while issuing periodic security alerts urging Americans to prepare for potential escalation or departure. Recent diplomatic activity includes US-brokered talks between Israel and Lebanon, with ambassadors scheduled to meet in Washington and the next round set for Rome in October 2026 focused on a security framework, Hezbollah disarmament, and phased Israeli withdrawals. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has publicly emphasized a non-confrontational approach to disarming Hezbollah and potential new international forces in the south. These developments sustain trader views that a full embassy evacuation remains unlikely absent a major new military or diplomatic trigger.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
交易量
$119,425結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jun 30, 2026, 5:10 PM ET**Ongoing regional tensions in Lebanon, driven by the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and broader US-Iran dynamics, have kept the US Embassy in Beirut on ordered departure status for non-essential personnel since February 2026, with core staff remaining operational.** The State Department maintains a Level 4 “Do Not Travel” advisory citing risks of armed conflict, terrorism, and unrest, while issuing periodic security alerts urging Americans to prepare for potential escalation or departure. Recent diplomatic activity includes US-brokered talks between Israel and Lebanon, with ambassadors scheduled to meet in Washington and the next round set for Rome in October 2026 focused on a security framework, Hezbollah disarmament, and phased Israeli withdrawals. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has publicly emphasized a non-confrontational approach to disarming Hezbollah and potential new international forces in the south. These developments sustain trader views that a full embassy evacuation remains unlikely absent a major new military or diplomatic trigger.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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