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icon for 加利福尼亚州追溯性税收禁令提案

加利福尼亚州追溯性税收禁令提案

icon for 加利福尼亚州追溯性税收禁令提案

加利福尼亚州追溯性税收禁令提案

48% 概率
Polymarket
最新

48% 概率
Polymarket
最新
Proposition 42 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property, which would offset the proposed wealth tax in Proposition 40. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).California voters face a closely contested November 2026 ballot measure that would bar new state taxes on personal property such as retirement accounts and investment holdings while limiting retroactive taxation based on pre-enactment status or conduct. The proposition emerged as a direct counter to the competing 2026 Billionaire Tax Act, with both measures designed so that the higher-vote initiative prevails if approved; this linkage has driven balanced trader positioning. Recent developments include substantial early fundraising by business-backed opposition groups, federal legislation targeting retroactive state taxes on former residents, and ongoing legal debate over the constitutionality of residency-based retroactivity in wealth-tax proposals. Upcoming campaign developments, voter mobilization around property protections, and any shifts in polling on the paired wealth-tax initiative could alter the narrow balance ahead of election day.

Proposition 42 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property, which would offset the proposed wealth tax in Proposition 40.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
交易量
$0
结束日期
2026-11-03
市场开放时间
Jul 1, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
Proposition 42 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property, which would offset the proposed wealth tax in Proposition 40. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Proposition 42 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property, which would offset the proposed wealth tax in Proposition 40. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).California voters face a closely contested November 2026 ballot measure that would bar new state taxes on personal property such as retirement accounts and investment holdings while limiting retroactive taxation based on pre-enactment status or conduct. The proposition emerged as a direct counter to the competing 2026 Billionaire Tax Act, with both measures designed so that the higher-vote initiative prevails if approved; this linkage has driven balanced trader positioning. Recent developments include substantial early fundraising by business-backed opposition groups, federal legislation targeting retroactive state taxes on former residents, and ongoing legal debate over the constitutionality of residency-based retroactivity in wealth-tax proposals. Upcoming campaign developments, voter mobilization around property protections, and any shifts in polling on the paired wealth-tax initiative could alter the narrow balance ahead of election day.

Proposition 42 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property, which would offset the proposed wealth tax in Proposition 40.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
交易量
$0
结束日期
2026-11-03
市场开放时间
Jul 1, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
Proposition 42 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property, which would offset the proposed wealth tax in Proposition 40. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"加利福尼亚州追溯性税收禁令提案"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"加利福尼亚禁止追溯税收提案",概率为 48%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 48¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 48%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"加利福尼亚州追溯性税收禁令提案"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场,于Jul 1, 2026上线。作为一个新市场,这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签,以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"加利福尼亚州追溯性税收禁令提案"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"加利福尼亚州追溯性税收禁令提案"的当前领先者是"加利福尼亚禁止追溯税收提案",概率为 48%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 48%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"加利福尼亚州追溯性税收禁令提案"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。