Elevated euro-area inflation, fueled by energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions, has shifted ECB policy expectations toward tightening rather than easing. After holding the deposit facility rate at 2.00% in April 2026, recent staff projections and economist surveys now price in at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, most likely at the June meeting, to address second-round effects amid resilient labor markets and rising core readings. This outlook underpins the 86.5% implied probability against any rate cut by year-end. A swift de-escalation sharply reducing energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation data could still support an unchanged path, but current consensus reflects data-dependent caution favoring higher rates through December.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$28,163 交易量
$28,163 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$28,163 交易量
$28,163 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation, fueled by energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions, has shifted ECB policy expectations toward tightening rather than easing. After holding the deposit facility rate at 2.00% in April 2026, recent staff projections and economist surveys now price in at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, most likely at the June meeting, to address second-round effects amid resilient labor markets and rising core readings. This outlook underpins the 86.5% implied probability against any rate cut by year-end. A swift de-escalation sharply reducing energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation data could still support an unchanged path, but current consensus reflects data-dependent caution favoring higher rates through December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
交易量
$28,163结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation, fueled by energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions, has shifted ECB policy expectations toward tightening rather than easing. After holding the deposit facility rate at 2.00% in April 2026, recent staff projections and economist surveys now price in at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, most likely at the June meeting, to address second-round effects amid resilient labor markets and rising core readings. This outlook underpins the 86.5% implied probability against any rate cut by year-end. A swift de-escalation sharply reducing energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation data could still support an unchanged path, but current consensus reflects data-dependent caution favoring higher rates through December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$28,163结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated euro-area inflation, fueled by energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions, has shifted ECB policy expectations toward tightening rather than easing. After holding the deposit facility rate at 2.00% in April 2026, recent staff projections and economist surveys now price in at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, most likely at the June meeting, to address second-round effects amid resilient labor markets and rising core readings. This outlook underpins the 86.5% implied probability against any rate cut by year-end. A swift de-escalation sharply reducing energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation data could still support an unchanged path, but current consensus reflects data-dependent caution favoring higher rates through December.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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