The ECB's current tightening cycle, driven by persistent energy price shocks from Middle East geopolitical tensions, underpins the 94.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 rate cut. Inflation has reaccelerated above 3% amid elevated oil and gas costs, with the deposit facility rate at 2.25% and markets fully pricing a September 25-basis-point hike to 2.5%, potentially followed by further increases. Recent data show limited second-round effects in wages or core measures, yet policymakers emphasize vigilance and data dependence, keeping policy on hold at elevated levels through year-end. A cut would require rapid de-escalation in energy markets or sharper-than-expected growth slowdowns to shift the trajectory.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
6% 概率
$32,634 交易量
$32,634 交易量
2026-12-31
是
6% 概率
$32,634 交易量
$32,634 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ECB's current tightening cycle, driven by persistent energy price shocks from Middle East geopolitical tensions, underpins the 94.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 rate cut. Inflation has reaccelerated above 3% amid elevated oil and gas costs, with the deposit facility rate at 2.25% and markets fully pricing a September 25-basis-point hike to 2.5%, potentially followed by further increases. Recent data show limited second-round effects in wages or core measures, yet policymakers emphasize vigilance and data dependence, keeping policy on hold at elevated levels through year-end. A cut would require rapid de-escalation in energy markets or sharper-than-expected growth slowdowns to shift the trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
交易量
$32,634结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ECB's current tightening cycle, driven by persistent energy price shocks from Middle East geopolitical tensions, underpins the 94.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 rate cut. Inflation has reaccelerated above 3% amid elevated oil and gas costs, with the deposit facility rate at 2.25% and markets fully pricing a September 25-basis-point hike to 2.5%, potentially followed by further increases. Recent data show limited second-round effects in wages or core measures, yet policymakers emphasize vigilance and data dependence, keeping policy on hold at elevated levels through year-end. A cut would require rapid de-escalation in energy markets or sharper-than-expected growth slowdowns to shift the trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$32,634结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETThe ECB's current tightening cycle, driven by persistent energy price shocks from Middle East geopolitical tensions, underpins the 94.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 rate cut. Inflation has reaccelerated above 3% amid elevated oil and gas costs, with the deposit facility rate at 2.25% and markets fully pricing a September 25-basis-point hike to 2.5%, potentially followed by further increases. Recent data show limited second-round effects in wages or core measures, yet policymakers emphasize vigilance and data dependence, keeping policy on hold at elevated levels through year-end. A cut would require rapid de-escalation in energy markets or sharper-than-expected growth slowdowns to shift the trajectory.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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