Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core PCE near 3.3%, underpins the near-even market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point hike (47.5%) versus no change (44.5%) at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and Governor Michael Barr, who emphasized decisive action if price pressures fail to moderate, have reinforced trader expectations amid resilient economic growth and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1%. The September 16 policy decision and August CPI release on September 11 represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the balance, as markets weigh incoming data against the Fed’s data-dependent stance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于25 bps increase 48%
无变化 45%
25 bps decrease 7.7%
50+ bps decrease 1.9%
$455,201 交易量
$455,201 交易量
2026-12-09
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
8%
无变化
45%
25 bps increase
48%
50+ bps increase
2%
25 bps increase 48%
无变化 45%
25 bps decrease 7.7%
50+ bps decrease 1.9%
$455,201 交易量
$455,201 交易量
2026-12-09
50+ bps decrease
$75,056 交易量
2%
25 bps decrease
$98,986 交易量
8%
无变化
$71,807 交易量
45%
25 bps increase
$124,252 交易量
48%
50+ bps increase
$85,099 交易量
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core PCE near 3.3%, underpins the near-even market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point hike (47.5%) versus no change (44.5%) at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and Governor Michael Barr, who emphasized decisive action if price pressures fail to moderate, have reinforced trader expectations amid resilient economic growth and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1%. The September 16 policy decision and August CPI release on September 11 represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the balance, as markets weigh incoming data against the Fed’s data-dependent stance.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
交易量
$455,201结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core PCE near 3.3%, underpins the near-even market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point hike (47.5%) versus no change (44.5%) at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and Governor Michael Barr, who emphasized decisive action if price pressures fail to moderate, have reinforced trader expectations amid resilient economic growth and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1%. The September 16 policy decision and August CPI release on September 11 represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the balance, as markets weigh incoming data against the Fed’s data-dependent stance.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$455,201结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core PCE near 3.3%, underpins the near-even market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point hike (47.5%) versus no change (44.5%) at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and Governor Michael Barr, who emphasized decisive action if price pressures fail to moderate, have reinforced trader expectations amid resilient economic growth and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1%. The September 16 policy decision and August CPI release on September 11 represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the balance, as markets weigh incoming data against the Fed’s data-dependent stance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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