Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from global models show Beijing's September 18 daytime maximum likely peaking near 28–29 °C under increasing cloud cover, light easterly flow, and modest moisture return that limits surface heating. Forecast guidance places the most probable range between 27–30 °C, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities for 29 °C, 28 °C, and 30 °C. Recent runs indicate a slight downward revision from earlier warmer solutions as mid-level subsidence weakens and scattered showers become possible by afternoon. This narrow spread around late-summer climatological norms, combined with typical model uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud timing, anchors trader positioning ahead of the final observational data release.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月18日北京气温最高？
9月18日北京气温最高？
29°C 39%
28°C 25%
30°C 22%
27°C 11%
最新
最新
2026-09-18
23°C或以下
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
3%
27°C
11%
28°C
25%
29°C
39%
30°C
22%
31°C
5%
32°C
2%
33°C或更高
<1%
29°C 39%
28°C 25%
30°C 22%
27°C 11%
最新
最新
2026-09-18
23°C或以下
$536 交易量
<1%
24°C
$1,454 交易量
1%
25°C
$799 交易量
1%
26°C
$395 交易量
3%
27°C
$1,177 交易量
11%
28°C
$1,253 交易量
25%
29°C
$1,393 交易量
39%
30°C
$936 交易量
22%
31°C
$429 交易量
5%
32°C
$315 交易量
2%
33°C或更高
$337 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from global models show Beijing's September 18 daytime maximum likely peaking near 28–29 °C under increasing cloud cover, light easterly flow, and modest moisture return that limits surface heating. Forecast guidance places the most probable range between 27–30 °C, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities for 29 °C, 28 °C, and 30 °C. Recent runs indicate a slight downward revision from earlier warmer solutions as mid-level subsidence weakens and scattered showers become possible by afternoon. This narrow spread around late-summer climatological norms, combined with typical model uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud timing, anchors trader positioning ahead of the final observational data release.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$9,023结束日期
2026-09-18市场开放时间
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from global models show Beijing's September 18 daytime maximum likely peaking near 28–29 °C under increasing cloud cover, light easterly flow, and modest moisture return that limits surface heating. Forecast guidance places the most probable range between 27–30 °C, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities for 29 °C, 28 °C, and 30 °C. Recent runs indicate a slight downward revision from earlier warmer solutions as mid-level subsidence weakens and scattered showers become possible by afternoon. This narrow spread around late-summer climatological norms, combined with typical model uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud timing, anchors trader positioning ahead of the final observational data release.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$9,023结束日期
2026-09-18市场开放时间
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETLatest numerical weather prediction ensembles from global models show Beijing's September 18 daytime maximum likely peaking near 28–29 °C under increasing cloud cover, light easterly flow, and modest moisture return that limits surface heating. Forecast guidance places the most probable range between 27–30 °C, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities for 29 °C, 28 °C, and 30 °C. Recent runs indicate a slight downward revision from earlier warmer solutions as mid-level subsidence weakens and scattered showers become possible by afternoon. This narrow spread around late-summer climatological norms, combined with typical model uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud timing, anchors trader positioning ahead of the final observational data release.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题