Latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models drive the tight clustering of trader odds around 78-83°F for Dallas's March 27 high temperature, implying a modest warm anomaly over the 72°F climatological average. The 80-81°F lead (17.5%) aligns with the multi-model mean, while 86°F+ (15%) gains from ECMWF's hotter outlier runs amid a building upper-level ridge. Differentiators include subtle variations in boundary layer mixing, afternoon cloud breaks, and residual soil moisture from prior rains suppressing peaks below 78°F (13%). Traders eye today's 12z updates and DFW Airport observations for resolution, as small diurnal shifts could swing outcomes by 2-3°F.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in Dallas on March 27?
Highest temperature in Dallas on March 27?
80-81°F 24%
84-85°F 15.3%
78-79°F 15%
86°F or higher 15%
$18,470 交易量
$18,470 交易量
67°F or below
1%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
7%
72-73°F
8%
74-75°F
10%
76-77°F
14%
78-79°F
15%
80-81°F
21%
82-83°F
13%
84-85°F
10%
86°F or higher
15%
80-81°F 24%
84-85°F 15.3%
78-79°F 15%
86°F or higher 15%
$18,470 交易量
$18,470 交易量
67°F or below
1%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
7%
72-73°F
8%
74-75°F
10%
76-77°F
14%
78-79°F
15%
80-81°F
21%
82-83°F
13%
84-85°F
10%
86°F or higher
15%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间: Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models drive the tight clustering of trader odds around 78-83°F for Dallas's March 27 high temperature, implying a modest warm anomaly over the 72°F climatological average. The 80-81°F lead (17.5%) aligns with the multi-model mean, while 86°F+ (15%) gains from ECMWF's hotter outlier runs amid a building upper-level ridge. Differentiators include subtle variations in boundary layer mixing, afternoon cloud breaks, and residual soil moisture from prior rains suppressing peaks below 78°F (13%). Traders eye today's 12z updates and DFW Airport observations for resolution, as small diurnal shifts could swing outcomes by 2-3°F.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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