Recent forecasts from AEMET, BBC Weather, and eltiempo.es converge on a daytime maximum of 36–38 °C for Madrid on 17 August under stable anticyclonic conditions, light northeasterly winds, and abundant sunshine that favor strong surface heating. This range aligns with the current above-normal temperature pattern across central Spain, where mid-August observations have repeatedly reached 37–40 °C amid a broader warm anomaly. Model consensus shows minimal cloud cover or precipitation risk, limiting convective cooling, while Madrid’s continental location and urban heat-island effect support peak readings near the upper end of historical late-summer norms. Traders have therefore concentrated implied probability on 37 °C (51.5 %), with 36 °C and 38 °C as the next most likely brackets, reflecting the narrow uncertainty band typical 24 hours before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月17日马德里气温最高？
8月17日马德里气温最高？
37°C 52%
38°C 22%
36°C 18%
35°C 4%
最新
最新
2026-08-17
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
1%
34°C
2%
35°C
4%
36°C
18%
37°C
52%
38°C
22%
39°C
3%
40°C
1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
37°C 52%
38°C 22%
36°C 18%
35°C 4%
最新
最新
2026-08-17
32°C or below
$25 交易量
<1%
33°C
$25 交易量
1%
34°C
$179 交易量
2%
35°C
$185 交易量
4%
36°C
$1,319 交易量
18%
37°C
$1,002 交易量
52%
38°C
$607 交易量
22%
39°C
$61 交易量
3%
40°C
$16 交易量
1%
41°C
$26 交易量
<1%
42°C or higher
$95 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from AEMET, BBC Weather, and eltiempo.es converge on a daytime maximum of 36–38 °C for Madrid on 17 August under stable anticyclonic conditions, light northeasterly winds, and abundant sunshine that favor strong surface heating. This range aligns with the current above-normal temperature pattern across central Spain, where mid-August observations have repeatedly reached 37–40 °C amid a broader warm anomaly. Model consensus shows minimal cloud cover or precipitation risk, limiting convective cooling, while Madrid’s continental location and urban heat-island effect support peak readings near the upper end of historical late-summer norms. Traders have therefore concentrated implied probability on 37 °C (51.5 %), with 36 °C and 38 °C as the next most likely brackets, reflecting the narrow uncertainty band typical 24 hours before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ET
交易量
$3,541结束日期
2026-08-17市场开放时间
Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from AEMET, BBC Weather, and eltiempo.es converge on a daytime maximum of 36–38 °C for Madrid on 17 August under stable anticyclonic conditions, light northeasterly winds, and abundant sunshine that favor strong surface heating. This range aligns with the current above-normal temperature pattern across central Spain, where mid-August observations have repeatedly reached 37–40 °C amid a broader warm anomaly. Model consensus shows minimal cloud cover or precipitation risk, limiting convective cooling, while Madrid’s continental location and urban heat-island effect support peak readings near the upper end of historical late-summer norms. Traders have therefore concentrated implied probability on 37 °C (51.5 %), with 36 °C and 38 °C as the next most likely brackets, reflecting the narrow uncertainty band typical 24 hours before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$3,541结束日期
2026-08-17市场开放时间
Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ETRecent forecasts from AEMET, BBC Weather, and eltiempo.es converge on a daytime maximum of 36–38 °C for Madrid on 17 August under stable anticyclonic conditions, light northeasterly winds, and abundant sunshine that favor strong surface heating. This range aligns with the current above-normal temperature pattern across central Spain, where mid-August observations have repeatedly reached 37–40 °C amid a broader warm anomaly. Model consensus shows minimal cloud cover or precipitation risk, limiting convective cooling, while Madrid’s continental location and urban heat-island effect support peak readings near the upper end of historical late-summer norms. Traders have therefore concentrated implied probability on 37 °C (51.5 %), with 36 °C and 38 °C as the next most likely brackets, reflecting the narrow uncertainty band typical 24 hours before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题