Current forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency point to a daily high near 30°C in Tokyo on August 17, aligning with the market's leading outcomes at 30°C (43.5%) and 29°C (31.5%). Mid-August climatology features persistent subtropical high pressure, urban heat island effects, and humidity levels often exceeding 75%, which stabilize daytime maxima around the long-term average of 31°C while limiting extremes. Recent observational trends show no significant cool-air intrusions or typhoon influences that would shift temperatures outside the 28–31°C range, supporting trader consensus on these thresholds over lower or higher outliers. Updated model runs and any last-minute pressure changes ahead of the 24-hour window could refine these implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月17日东京气温最高？
8月17日东京气温最高？
30°C 44%
29°C 32%
31°C 13%
28°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-17
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
4%
28°C
10%
29°C
32%
30°C
44%
31°C
13%
32°C
3%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
1%
30°C 44%
29°C 32%
31°C 13%
28°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-17
24°C or below
$753 交易量
<1%
25°C
$277 交易量
<1%
26°C
$109 交易量
1%
27°C
$367 交易量
4%
28°C
$248 交易量
10%
29°C
$661 交易量
32%
30°C
$964 交易量
44%
31°C
$221 交易量
13%
32°C
$161 交易量
3%
33°C
$169 交易量
1%
34°C or higher
$249 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency point to a daily high near 30°C in Tokyo on August 17, aligning with the market's leading outcomes at 30°C (43.5%) and 29°C (31.5%). Mid-August climatology features persistent subtropical high pressure, urban heat island effects, and humidity levels often exceeding 75%, which stabilize daytime maxima around the long-term average of 31°C while limiting extremes. Recent observational trends show no significant cool-air intrusions or typhoon influences that would shift temperatures outside the 28–31°C range, supporting trader consensus on these thresholds over lower or higher outliers. Updated model runs and any last-minute pressure changes ahead of the 24-hour window could refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 15, 2026, 4:05 PM ET
交易量
$4,178结束日期
2026-08-17市场开放时间
Aug 15, 2026, 4:05 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency point to a daily high near 30°C in Tokyo on August 17, aligning with the market's leading outcomes at 30°C (43.5%) and 29°C (31.5%). Mid-August climatology features persistent subtropical high pressure, urban heat island effects, and humidity levels often exceeding 75%, which stabilize daytime maxima around the long-term average of 31°C while limiting extremes. Recent observational trends show no significant cool-air intrusions or typhoon influences that would shift temperatures outside the 28–31°C range, supporting trader consensus on these thresholds over lower or higher outliers. Updated model runs and any last-minute pressure changes ahead of the 24-hour window could refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$4,178结束日期
2026-08-17市场开放时间
Aug 15, 2026, 4:05 PM ETCurrent forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency point to a daily high near 30°C in Tokyo on August 17, aligning with the market's leading outcomes at 30°C (43.5%) and 29°C (31.5%). Mid-August climatology features persistent subtropical high pressure, urban heat island effects, and humidity levels often exceeding 75%, which stabilize daytime maxima around the long-term average of 31°C while limiting extremes. Recent observational trends show no significant cool-air intrusions or typhoon influences that would shift temperatures outside the 28–31°C range, supporting trader consensus on these thresholds over lower or higher outliers. Updated model runs and any last-minute pressure changes ahead of the 24-hour window could refine these implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题