Recent forecasts from sources like the BBC, TimeandDate, and EaseWeather indicate Madrid highs near 32–34°C on August 16, 2026, under mostly sunny conditions with light winds and minimal precipitation risk. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 34°C outcome (42% implied probability) and 35°C (31%), as central Spain remains under a warm air mass following earlier 2026 heatwaves and a summer trend toward above-normal temperatures per AEMET outlooks. Persistent high pressure and limited Atlantic cooling keep values above the long-term August average of ~32°C, while model consensus shows little chance of exceeding 36°C or dropping below 32°C given stable steering patterns. Updated runs over the next 24–48 hours from agencies like AEMET could refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月16日马德里气温最高？
8月16日马德里气温最高？
34°C 43%
35°C 32%
33°C 10%
36°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-16
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
3%
33°C
10%
34°C
43%
35°C
32%
36°C
10%
37°C or higher
3%
34°C 43%
35°C 32%
33°C 10%
36°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-16
27°C or below
$10 交易量
<1%
28°C
$10 交易量
<1%
29°C
$24 交易量
<1%
30°C
$10 交易量
<1%
31°C
$10 交易量
<1%
32°C
$25 交易量
3%
33°C
$192 交易量
10%
34°C
$183 交易量
43%
35°C
$1,423 交易量
32%
36°C
$132 交易量
10%
37°C or higher
$23 交易量
3%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources like the BBC, TimeandDate, and EaseWeather indicate Madrid highs near 32–34°C on August 16, 2026, under mostly sunny conditions with light winds and minimal precipitation risk. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 34°C outcome (42% implied probability) and 35°C (31%), as central Spain remains under a warm air mass following earlier 2026 heatwaves and a summer trend toward above-normal temperatures per AEMET outlooks. Persistent high pressure and limited Atlantic cooling keep values above the long-term August average of ~32°C, while model consensus shows little chance of exceeding 36°C or dropping below 32°C given stable steering patterns. Updated runs over the next 24–48 hours from agencies like AEMET could refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$2,043结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources like the BBC, TimeandDate, and EaseWeather indicate Madrid highs near 32–34°C on August 16, 2026, under mostly sunny conditions with light winds and minimal precipitation risk. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 34°C outcome (42% implied probability) and 35°C (31%), as central Spain remains under a warm air mass following earlier 2026 heatwaves and a summer trend toward above-normal temperatures per AEMET outlooks. Persistent high pressure and limited Atlantic cooling keep values above the long-term August average of ~32°C, while model consensus shows little chance of exceeding 36°C or dropping below 32°C given stable steering patterns. Updated runs over the next 24–48 hours from agencies like AEMET could refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,043结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent forecasts from sources like the BBC, TimeandDate, and EaseWeather indicate Madrid highs near 32–34°C on August 16, 2026, under mostly sunny conditions with light winds and minimal precipitation risk. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 34°C outcome (42% implied probability) and 35°C (31%), as central Spain remains under a warm air mass following earlier 2026 heatwaves and a summer trend toward above-normal temperatures per AEMET outlooks. Persistent high pressure and limited Atlantic cooling keep values above the long-term August average of ~32°C, while model consensus shows little chance of exceeding 36°C or dropping below 32°C given stable steering patterns. Updated runs over the next 24–48 hours from agencies like AEMET could refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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