Recent AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS model runs place Madrid’s August 14 maximum in the 38–39 °C range, underpinning the market’s heaviest weighting on those two outcomes. A strong mid-level ridge, clear skies, and depleted soil moisture across the central Iberian Plateau are promoting efficient daytime heating with minimal cloud cover or mixing. Light winds further limit ventilation, while ensemble spreads remain narrow two days ahead. Climatological August highs average near 32–33 °C, so current guidance reflects anomalous warmth; any slight westward shift of an Atlantic trough or timing adjustment in the ridge could trim or add a degree before resolution. Traders are monitoring the next official AEMET briefing and updated 00Z/12Z model cycles for refinements.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月14日马德里气温最高？
8月14日马德里气温最高？
39°C 48%
38°C 35%
40°C 13%
37°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-08-14
35°C或以下
1%
36°C
2%
37°C
7%
38°C
35%
39°C
48%
40°C
13%
41°C
3%
42°C
3%
43°C
<1%
44°C
<1%
45°C或更高
<1%
39°C 48%
38°C 35%
40°C 13%
37°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-08-14
35°C或以下
$52 交易量
1%
36°C
$25 交易量
2%
37°C
$92 交易量
7%
38°C
$207 交易量
35%
39°C
$191 交易量
48%
40°C
$269 交易量
13%
41°C
$38 交易量
3%
42°C
$5 交易量
3%
43°C
$12 交易量
<1%
44°C
$16 交易量
<1%
45°C或更高
$31 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS model runs place Madrid’s August 14 maximum in the 38–39 °C range, underpinning the market’s heaviest weighting on those two outcomes. A strong mid-level ridge, clear skies, and depleted soil moisture across the central Iberian Plateau are promoting efficient daytime heating with minimal cloud cover or mixing. Light winds further limit ventilation, while ensemble spreads remain narrow two days ahead. Climatological August highs average near 32–33 °C, so current guidance reflects anomalous warmth; any slight westward shift of an Atlantic trough or timing adjustment in the ridge could trim or add a degree before resolution. Traders are monitoring the next official AEMET briefing and updated 00Z/12Z model cycles for refinements.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
交易量
$937结束日期
2026-08-14市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS model runs place Madrid’s August 14 maximum in the 38–39 °C range, underpinning the market’s heaviest weighting on those two outcomes. A strong mid-level ridge, clear skies, and depleted soil moisture across the central Iberian Plateau are promoting efficient daytime heating with minimal cloud cover or mixing. Light winds further limit ventilation, while ensemble spreads remain narrow two days ahead. Climatological August highs average near 32–33 °C, so current guidance reflects anomalous warmth; any slight westward shift of an Atlantic trough or timing adjustment in the ridge could trim or add a degree before resolution. Traders are monitoring the next official AEMET briefing and updated 00Z/12Z model cycles for refinements.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$937结束日期
2026-08-14市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETRecent AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS model runs place Madrid’s August 14 maximum in the 38–39 °C range, underpinning the market’s heaviest weighting on those two outcomes. A strong mid-level ridge, clear skies, and depleted soil moisture across the central Iberian Plateau are promoting efficient daytime heating with minimal cloud cover or mixing. Light winds further limit ventilation, while ensemble spreads remain narrow two days ahead. Climatological August highs average near 32–33 °C, so current guidance reflects anomalous warmth; any slight westward shift of an Atlantic trough or timing adjustment in the ridge could trim or add a degree before resolution. Traders are monitoring the next official AEMET briefing and updated 00Z/12Z model cycles for refinements.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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