Trader consensus clusters around 29–30°C for Shanghai’s August 12 high because recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs show the city under a weak subtropical ridge with modest southwesterly flow, limiting afternoon convection while allowing surface heating to peak near these values. The tight spread between 28°C and 30°C outcomes stems from small differences in modeled cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and urban heat-island amplification on the day, with limited model agreement on exact timing of any sea-breeze or thunderstorm cooling. Official China Meteorological Administration guidance and station observations through August 10 continue to support this narrow range, though the next 48-hour model cycles and 12 August morning soundings could still shift the most likely maximum by 1–2°C before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月12日上海气温最高？
8月12日上海气温最高？
29°C 42%
30°C 33%
28°C 22%
31°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-12
24°C或以下
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
4%
28°C
22%
29°C
42%
30°C
33%
31°C
6%
32°C
2%
33°C
<1%
34°C或更高
<1%
29°C 42%
30°C 33%
28°C 22%
31°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-12
24°C或以下
$506 交易量
<1%
25°C
$528 交易量
<1%
26°C
$182 交易量
<1%
27°C
$260 交易量
4%
28°C
$749 交易量
22%
29°C
$595 交易量
42%
30°C
$512 交易量
33%
31°C
$512 交易量
6%
32°C
$143 交易量
2%
33°C
$375 交易量
<1%
34°C或更高
$177 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus clusters around 29–30°C for Shanghai’s August 12 high because recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs show the city under a weak subtropical ridge with modest southwesterly flow, limiting afternoon convection while allowing surface heating to peak near these values. The tight spread between 28°C and 30°C outcomes stems from small differences in modeled cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and urban heat-island amplification on the day, with limited model agreement on exact timing of any sea-breeze or thunderstorm cooling. Official China Meteorological Administration guidance and station observations through August 10 continue to support this narrow range, though the next 48-hour model cycles and 12 August morning soundings could still shift the most likely maximum by 1–2°C before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
交易量
$4,538结束日期
2026-08-12市场开放时间
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus clusters around 29–30°C for Shanghai’s August 12 high because recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs show the city under a weak subtropical ridge with modest southwesterly flow, limiting afternoon convection while allowing surface heating to peak near these values. The tight spread between 28°C and 30°C outcomes stems from small differences in modeled cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and urban heat-island amplification on the day, with limited model agreement on exact timing of any sea-breeze or thunderstorm cooling. Official China Meteorological Administration guidance and station observations through August 10 continue to support this narrow range, though the next 48-hour model cycles and 12 August morning soundings could still shift the most likely maximum by 1–2°C before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$4,538结束日期
2026-08-12市场开放时间
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETTrader consensus clusters around 29–30°C for Shanghai’s August 12 high because recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs show the city under a weak subtropical ridge with modest southwesterly flow, limiting afternoon convection while allowing surface heating to peak near these values. The tight spread between 28°C and 30°C outcomes stems from small differences in modeled cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and urban heat-island amplification on the day, with limited model agreement on exact timing of any sea-breeze or thunderstorm cooling. Official China Meteorological Administration guidance and station observations through August 10 continue to support this narrow range, though the next 48-hour model cycles and 12 August morning soundings could still shift the most likely maximum by 1–2°C before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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