Latest Met Office observations and numerical weather prediction models have locked in an 18°C overnight minimum for London on August 12 under a persistent high-pressure ridge that suppresses radiative cooling and maintains mild Atlantic air advection. This aligns with seasonal norms for mid-August, where average lows hover near 14–16°C but current anticyclonic conditions have elevated baselines by 2–4°C, producing the market's 100% implied probability for exactly 18°C. Official temperature thresholds are measured at standardized urban stations with minimal urban heat island bias after midnight. Only an abrupt shift in steering flow or unmodeled cloud cover could drop readings below this level, though ensemble guidance shows low variance this close to resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月12日伦敦最低气温？
8月12日伦敦最低气温？
18°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$15,648 交易量
$15,648 交易量
2026-08-12
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
18°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$15,648 交易量
$15,648 交易量
2026-08-12
12°C or below
$279 交易量
No
13°C
$184 交易量
No
14°C
$688 交易量
No
15°C
$942 交易量
No
16°C
$1,407 交易量
No
17°C
$5,447 交易量
No
18°C
$3,016 交易量
Yes
19°C
$2,510 交易量
No
20°C
$591 交易量
No
21°C
$295 交易量
No
22°C or higher
$289 交易量
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest Met Office observations and numerical weather prediction models have locked in an 18°C overnight minimum for London on August 12 under a persistent high-pressure ridge that suppresses radiative cooling and maintains mild Atlantic air advection. This aligns with seasonal norms for mid-August, where average lows hover near 14–16°C but current anticyclonic conditions have elevated baselines by 2–4°C, producing the market's 100% implied probability for exactly 18°C. Official temperature thresholds are measured at standardized urban stations with minimal urban heat island bias after midnight. Only an abrupt shift in steering flow or unmodeled cloud cover could drop readings below this level, though ensemble guidance shows low variance this close to resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$15,648结束日期
2026-08-12市场开放时间
Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest Met Office observations and numerical weather prediction models have locked in an 18°C overnight minimum for London on August 12 under a persistent high-pressure ridge that suppresses radiative cooling and maintains mild Atlantic air advection. This aligns with seasonal norms for mid-August, where average lows hover near 14–16°C but current anticyclonic conditions have elevated baselines by 2–4°C, producing the market's 100% implied probability for exactly 18°C. Official temperature thresholds are measured at standardized urban stations with minimal urban heat island bias after midnight. Only an abrupt shift in steering flow or unmodeled cloud cover could drop readings below this level, though ensemble guidance shows low variance this close to resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$15,648结束日期
2026-08-12市场开放时间
Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Latest Met Office observations and numerical weather prediction models have locked in an 18°C overnight minimum for London on August 12 under a persistent high-pressure ridge that suppresses radiative cooling and maintains mild Atlantic air advection. This aligns with seasonal norms for mid-August, where average lows hover near 14–16°C but current anticyclonic conditions have elevated baselines by 2–4°C, producing the market's 100% implied probability for exactly 18°C. Official temperature thresholds are measured at standardized urban stations with minimal urban heat island bias after midnight. Only an abrupt shift in steering flow or unmodeled cloud cover could drop readings below this level, though ensemble guidance shows low variance this close to resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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